In the loop 22 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.27/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.28/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.5%), CLP (+1.3%) and BRL (+1.1%) were the biggest gainers; the INR (-0.8%), RON (-0.3%) and HUF (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: Bank Indonesia is expected to hold its key rate steady today, maintaining the interest rate differential to support the rupiah.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to cut its benchmark lending rate by 150 bps today.
The pace of easing will likely remain measured beyond that given the elevated inflation outlook in the region.

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting: Day 3 at Davos was dominated by intensifying geopolitical discussions and a strong focus on technological transformation.
Greenland tensions continued to influence the summit’s tone.
US President Trump’s address stood out as the day’s central event; a focal point of President Trump’s remarks was his controversial stance on Greenland.
He reiterated in his speech that only the US could “secure” the territory and called for immediate negotiations for its acquisition.
He has since noted that he would hold off on imposing tariffs on goods from EU countries that have opposed his push to take control of Greenland, citing what he described as a “framework for a future deal” on the island.
Trump made the announcement after meeting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, but he did not provide details on the terms of the proposed framework.

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said yesterday that the prospect of any new US tariffs could force policymakers to reconsider whether the current rate cutting cycle has come to an end.
Nagel noted that uncertainties surrounding the tariffs could produce spillover effects for monetary policy.
He added though that he is more concerned about the potential impact on economic growth than on inflation.

The US Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, for October and November, is due for release today.
Monthly core PCE inflation was likely up 0.3% in October and 0.2% in November.
The updated estimate of the Q3:25 US GDP print is also scheduled for release.
GDP is expected to come in at 4.3% y/y in Q3:25, from 3.8% y/y in Q2:25.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.26/bbl; ($65.24/bbl*).
Gold is at $4799/oz ($4831/oz*).
SA CDS 137bps*, Brazil 134bps* and Turkey 216bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.88%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.44%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.31%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF