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In the loop 11 September 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.49/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.47/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.5%), CLP (+0.5%) and PEN (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.2%), ARS (-0.6%) and PLN (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
 
  • Central bank watch: ECB policymakers are set to announce their interest rate decision today.
  • The ECB is widely expected to hold its benchmark rates steady, marking a second consecutive pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in June 2024.
  •  The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 200 bps today, continuing its aggressive easing cycle amid efforts to stimulate growth and stabilise financial conditions.
 
  • Sentiment across the UK property market remains constrained.
  • The UK’s Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance came in at -19% in August, from -13% in July.   
  • The RICS noted a further decline in new buyer inquiries in recent weeks, with a net 17% of respondents reporting lower interest in August, compared to July.
  • Demand has fallen across most regions of the UK.
  • Ongoing uncertainty around global trade policies will continue to weigh on sentiment.
 
  • The US CPI for August is in focus today, with expectations pointing to an increase to 2.9% y/y, up from 2.7% y/y in July. 
  • On a m/m, headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%, from 0.2% in July..
  • Core CPI is also expected to rise, by 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, indicating persistent underlying inflation pressures. 
  • Tariff-related costs are continuing to filter through to consumers.
  • The Fed will closely monitor today’s data for signs of broader inflationary pressures, especially those stemming from recent tariff hikes.
  • The CPI release is seen as a key input ahead of the FOMC meeting on 17 September; expectations are for a 25 bps rate cut to support the economy.
 
  • Locally, the current account balance for Q2:25 is scheduled for release today.
  • The deficit is expected to have widened to 0.7% of GDP in Q2:25, from a deficit of 0.5% of GDP in Q1:25. 
  • Manufacturing production is expected to have declined by 0.4% y/y in July, after having increased by 1.9% y/y in June. 
  • On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.8% in July, after having flatlined in June.
  • Mining production for July is also out today; production is expected to have increased by 3.4% y/y in July, following a 2.4% y/y increase in June.
  • Mining production increased by 0.2% m/m in June.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 9.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 38.5% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $67.28/bbl; ($67.49/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3631/oz ($3640/oz*).
  • SA CDS 165bps*, Brazil 134bps* and Turkey 268bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.04%*, German bund at 2.65%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.57%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.46%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 11h00: SA current account balance (Q2:25)
  • 11h30: SA mining production (July)
  • 13h00: SA manufacturing production (July)
  • 14h15: Eurozone ECB interest rate decision – no change expected
  • 14h30: US CPI (August), initial jobless claims (6 September)
  • 20h00: US Federal budget balance (August)
 

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