In the loop 10 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.89/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.90/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+1.3%), HUF (+1.1%) and PLN (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.1%) and INR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank remains focused on keeping inflation under control as part of its broader effort to strengthen the Eurozone economy.
She stressed that Europe's long-term resilience and competitiveness ultimately depend on a supportive wider policy framework.
policymakers have recently highlighted the region's resilience to external headwinds, including US tariffs, and expect higher public spending in Germany and elsewhere to provide support.
Lagarde emphasised that the bloc's underlying foundations need to be reinforced. In particular, she pointed to concerns about weak productivity growth and subdued economic momentum.
She noted that the ECB continues to push for structural reforms and deeper economic integration across the region.

Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said that changes to interest rates would only be warranted if the economic outlook were to shift materially.
He noted that it would require a “major departure from our baseline scenario” for him to support a recalibration of policy.
Kazimir broadly agreed with Lagarde's assessment of inflation dynamics and the role of the euro, while cautioning that global economic volatility is likely to persist.
Overall, he judged the current situation to be broadly balanced.

Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said the ECB can look through a temporary period of below-target inflation, but must remain ready to act in either direction if conditions warrant.
He stressed that policymakers would continue to monitor incoming economic data closely and stand prepared to adjust policy as necessary.
The ECB currently expects inflation to remain below its 2% target for the next two years before returning to target in 2028.

President Trump said yesterday that his preferred candidate to lead the Fed, Kevin Warsh, could lift economic growth to 15% if confirmed.
Trump added that Warsh had been the “runner-up” in his previous search for a Fed chair, calling it a major mistake to have chosen Jerome Powell instead.
The remarks suggest Trump is betting that Warsh could help boost the economy ahead of the midterm elections.
Warsh's confirmation, however, could be delayed, with potential obstacles including a Justice Department probe and scrutiny surrounding a Fed building renovation project.

The US NFIB small business optimism index, due out today, likely rose to 99.8 in January, from 99.5 in December.
December's increase was driven by improved expectations for the economy and a decline in uncertainty.
Both of the above are likely to have extended into January.
Retail sales for December, also due today, likely rose 0.4% m/m in December, as car sales climbed 2.7%, from a 0.6% m/m increase in November.
Lower fuel prices, expectations of larger tax refunds, and positive wealth effects have supported consumer demand.

Brent crude oil is currently at $68.94/bbl; ($69.04/bbl*).
Gold is at $5023/oz ($5057/oz*).
SA CDS 138bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 215bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.18%*, German bund at 2.84%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.12%*, SA's R2035 at 8.01%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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