In the loop 10 March 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.34/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R18.24/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the HUF (+0.7%), PLN (+0.6%) and CZK (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.1%), COP (-0.7%) and ZAR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai composite are down.

Central bank watch: the National Bank of Poland will likely keep the policy rate at 5.75% on Wednesday.

China’s CPI came in lower than expected in February, declining by 0.7% y/y, from a 0.5% y/y increase in January.
PPI was also down more than expected in February, by 2.2% y/y, from a 2.3% y/y decline in January.
Chinese credit data will likely show that new credit may have pulled back, after a spurt in January.

German industrial activity, due out today, likely increased in January, following a notable decline at the end of 2024.
Industrial production, including energy and construction, dropped 2.4% m/m in December.
The Eurozone’s industrial production, scheduled for release on Thursday, is likely to have expanded by 0.7% m/m in January, following a 1.1% m/m decline in December.
UK GDP data for January is due out on Friday and will likely show that the economy increased only slightly, by 0.1% m/m, after increasing by 0.4% m/m in December.

The US February CPI will be in focus this week (Wednesday) and is likely to come in at 2.9% y/y, from 3.0% y/y in January.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in February, after having increased by 0.5% in January.
The NFIB small business optimism index for February, due out tomorrow, is likely to have slipped to 101.0, from 102.8 in January.
The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for January, scheduled for release tomorrow, are likely to have increased to 7.665 million, from 7.6 million in December.
PPI for February, out on Thursday, is expected at 3.2% y/y, from 3.5% y/y in January.
The University of Michigan sentiment index for March is due out on Friday.
The sentiment index is likely to have deteriorated to 63.5 in March, from 64.7 in February.

Locally, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is scheduled to table Budget 2025 on Wednesday.
Mining production for January is due out on Thursday; production declined by 2.4% y/y in December.
Mining production declined by 3.9% m/m in December.
Manufacturing production for January is also due out on Thursday; production is expected to have declined by 1.9% y/y in January, after having fallen by 1.2% y/y in December.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.9% in January, following a 2.4% decrease in December.

Brent crude oil is currently at $70.06/bbl; ($70.36/bbl*).
Gold is at $2908/oz ($2909/oz*).
SA CDS 201bps*, Brazil 174bps* and Turkey 259bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.30%*, German bund at 2.83%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.52%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.52%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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