In the loop 22 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.37/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.40/$*).
EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the ZAR (-1.0%), ARS (-0.9%) and KRW (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: Bank Indonesia is likely to cut rates by 25 bps today to support growth.

Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has ordered the preparation of a new package of economic measures aimed at easing the impact of inflation on households and businesses.
Takaichi has made tackling rising living costs a top priority, reflecting growing public concern over persistent price pressures.
The package is expected to include subsidies for electricity and gas bills, regional grants to help curb price increases, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises to raise wages and boost capital investment.
It will also emphasise economic security and defence, with investments in strategic industries and efforts to strengthen supply chains for critical goods.
However, Takaichi did not disclose the size of the package or whether additional bond issuance would be required to fund it.

ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras commented that the central bank has achieved a “soft landing” by bringing inflation back to 2% while preserving economic resilience.
He noted that lower interest rates and contained inflation are creating an environment conducive to investment, sustainable growth, and financial stability.
Stournaras added that the global economy is undergoing a transition that could strengthen the euro’s role as a global reserve currency.
He emphasised that stronger demand for European securities would improve the region’s liquidity and financing capacity, supporting productive investment and long-term competitiveness.

The UK's CPI likely accelerated further in September, keeping the BOE on edge; CPI is expected to come in higher, at 4.0% y/y in September, from 3.8% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.1% in September, after having increased by 0.3% in August.
Core CPI is expected to have come in higher, at 3.7% y/y in September, from 3.6% y /y in August.
The BOE expects CPI to have peaked at 4% in September.
The UK house price index for August is also due out today; the index increased by 2.8% y/y in July.

Locally, the September CPI is due today and is expected to have risen slightly, to 3.4% y/y, from 3.3% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, from a 0.1% decline in August.
Core CPI is projected at 3.1% y/y in September, matching August’s outcome.

Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 16.4% year-to-date.
The gold price fell more than 5% yesterday, the biggest intraday drop in 12 years.
The decline was driven by easing US-China trade tensions, a stronger dollar, and the lack of key data on investor positioning in futures markets.
Gold’s sharp gains earlier this year had been fuelled by investor concerns over rising government debt, the dollar’s outlook, and a flight to safe havens amid President Trump’s trade war.
The gold price is up this morning, and up by 57.7% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $62.40/bbl; ($61.32/bbl*).
Gold is at $4139/oz ($4125/oz*).
SA CDS 161bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 263bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.95%*, German bund at 2.55%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.01%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.89%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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