Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 04 April 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is trading at R18.77/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.74/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MXN (+2.4%), BGN (+1.8%) and RON (+1.7%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.3%), CNY (-0.2%) and ARS (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai composite are down; stock markets have plunged following the US tariff announcements.
 
  • Japan’s real household spending contracted in February.
  • Inflation-adjusted spending declined 0.5% y/y in February, after increasing 0.8% y/y in January.
  • Households spent less on clothes, housing and food in real terms.
  • Consumer inflation excluding fresh food, the BOJ’s preferred inflation gauge, stood at 3.0% y/y in February.
  • The Japanese government is reportedly considering measures to support the economy amid worries about the impact of US tariffs.
  • Japan’s exports to the US are facing a 24% across-the-board levy on top of the 25% tariff on auto exports to the US which is already in effect.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned earlier in the week that tariffs would significantly affect trade activity.
  • “Another big point is how household and business sentiment will be affected by them, influencing overall spending,” Ueda noted. 
 
  • Fed Governor Lisa Cook sees slower growth and stalled progress on lowering inflation as a result of tariffs and other policy choices under Trump.
  • “I am carefully watching various channels through which tariff effects could have more widespread implications for prices”, she said.
  • “I currently place more weight on scenarios where risks are skewed to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth”, Cook added.
  • “Such scenarios, with higher initial inflation and slower growth, could pose challenges for monetary policy”, she warned.
  • “Amid growing uncertainty and risks to both sides of our dual mandate, I believe it will be appropriate to maintain the policy rate at its current level while continuing to vigilantly monitor developments that could change the outlook”, noted Cook.
  • Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also noted that “there is no need to be in a hurry to make further policy rate adjustments” amid the current level of high uncertainty.
  • “It’s still the case that there remains a substantial amount of uncertainty around trade and this level of uncertainty, of course, can weigh on households’ and businesses’ investment and spending decisions”, he said.
 
  • The focus will be on US non-farm payrolls for March today.
  • Non-farm payrolls are expected to have slowed to 140k in March, from 151k in February.
  • Federal job cuts, driven by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), are likely to have affected payrolls in March.
  • The unemployment rate, however, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%, in March.
  • Average hourly earnings growth was likely steady, at 4.0% y/y, in March.
 
  • Locally, there are no major data releases scheduled for today.
  • Discussions on GNU participation remain ongoing, after disagreements around the Budget and other government policies frayed relations between the ANC and the DA.
  • Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday reiterated government’s long-term strategy for tax policy in a question-and-answer session in parliament.
  • Despite spending pressures periodically necessitating tax increases, as was the case in the current Budget, Godongwana confirmed that the long-term aim is to broaden the tax base and lower rates, where possible.
  • While there was broad support for fiscal consolidation and the stabilisation of the debt-to-GDP ratio, disagreement on the increase in VAT was a key sticking point in getting the Budget passed.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 7.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 18.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $69.37/bbl; ($70.14/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3102/oz ($3108/oz*).
  • SA CDS 254bps*, Brazil 189bps* and Turkey 324bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.03%*, German bund at 2.65%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.84%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.83%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 14h30: US non-farm payrolls (March), unemployment rate (March), average hourly earnings (March)
 

Read PDF