In the loop 07 October 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is unchanged this morning, at R17.48/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.48/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MXN (+0.8%), COP (+0.5%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-1.9%), PLN (-0.7%) and CZK (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up.

Central bank watch: the central bank of India, New Zealand and South Korea are to meet this week.
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to stay on hold, at 6.5%, on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand looks set to deliver a 50bps rate cut, also on Wednesday.
The Bank of Korea is also expected to cut its base rate, by 25 bps, on Friday.

The minutes of the ECB’s September policy meeting will be in the spotlight on Thursday.
Investors will watch for clues on whether the central bank will cut rates further at the 17 October policy meeting.
German industrial production for August is scheduled for release tomorrow; recent sentiment data has pointed to bleak near-term prospects, especially in the industrial sector.
The UK’s monthly GDP print for August, scheduled for release on Friday, is likely to show the economy recording a decent pace of growth in Q3:24.

The US FOMC meeting minutes of the September meeting will take centre stage on Wednesday.
The September CPI will be in focus on Thursday and is likely to come in at 2.3% y/y, from 2.5% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.1% in September, after having increased by 0.2% m/m in August.
The NFIB small business optimism index for September, due out tomorrow, is likely to have improved.
The Empire manufacturing survey for October is due out on Friday; consumer sentiment likely increased in October after recent news that the economy had briskly added jobs and that the unemployment had fallen in September.

Locally, the SARB’s gross and net reserves for September are scheduled for release today.
Gross reserves were $63.21bn in August and net reserves $60.14bn.
Net reserves are likely to have increased to $60.78bn in September.
Manufacturing production for August is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have increased by 0.1% y/y in August, after having increased by 1.7% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.2% in August, following a 2.1% increase in July.
Mining production for August is also due out on Thursday and likely declined by 1.3% y/y, after having declined by 1.4% y/y in July.
Mining production declined by 0.9% m/m in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $77.76/bbl; ($78.05/bbl*).
Gold is at $2643/oz ($2653/oz*).
SA CDS 180bps*, Brazil 144bps* and Turkey 280bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.96%*, German bund at 2.21%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.36%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.43%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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