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In the loop 08 July 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.17/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.18/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+1.2%), BRL (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.3%), TRY (-0.2%) and ARS (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • China’s CPI for June, due on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 0.4% y/y, from 0.3% y/y in May.
  • Early indicators showed food prices as mixed, while non-food prices headed up.
  • Producer prices are likely to have declined by 0.8% y/y in June, after having declined by 1.4% y/y in May.
  • The UK’s monthly GDP print for May, scheduled for release on Thursday, is likely to show this economy as being on course for another healthy gain in Q2:24. 
  • April’s monthly data will be open for revisions in this release.
  • The US June CPI takes centre stage this week, due out on Thursday, and is likely to come in at 3.1% y/y in June, from 3.3% y/y in May.
  • On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.1% in June, after having stagnated in May.
  • The NFIB small business optimism index, due out tomorrow, may have deteriorated slightly in June, after increasing for three consecutive months.
  • The Empire manufacturing survey for July is due out on Friday; consumer sentiment likely deteriorated in early July as households confront tougher economic times.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.
  • Powell is due to deliver the testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
  • Locally, mining production for May, due tomorrow, likely increased by 0.9% y/y, after having increased by 0.7% y/y in April. 
  • Mining production is likely to have increased by 1.1% m/m in May, after having increased by 0.8% m/m in April.
  • Manufacturing production for May is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have increased by 0.2% y/y in May, after having improved by 5.3% y/y in April. 
  • On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have declined by 2.2% in April, following a 5.2% increase in April.
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 12.2% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 15.6% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $86.40/bbl; ($87.54/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2383/oz ($2392/oz*).
  • SA CDS 204bps*, Brazil 158bps* and Turkey 264bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%, German bund at 2.55%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.93%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.75%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 10h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (July)
  • 21h00: US consumer credit (May)

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