In the loop 08 July 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.17/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.18/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+1.2%), BRL (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.3%), TRY (-0.2%) and ARS (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

China’s CPI for June, due on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 0.4% y/y, from 0.3% y/y in May.
Early indicators showed food prices as mixed, while non-food prices headed up.
Producer prices are likely to have declined by 0.8% y/y in June, after having declined by 1.4% y/y in May.

The UK’s monthly GDP print for May, scheduled for release on Thursday, is likely to show this economy as being on course for another healthy gain in Q2:24.
April’s monthly data will be open for revisions in this release.

The US June CPI takes centre stage this week, due out on Thursday, and is likely to come in at 3.1% y/y in June, from 3.3% y/y in May.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.1% in June, after having stagnated in May.
The NFIB small business optimism index, due out tomorrow, may have deteriorated slightly in June, after increasing for three consecutive months.
The Empire manufacturing survey for July is due out on Friday; consumer sentiment likely deteriorated in early July as households confront tougher economic times.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.
Powell is due to deliver the testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Locally, mining production for May, due tomorrow, likely increased by 0.9% y/y, after having increased by 0.7% y/y in April.
Mining production is likely to have increased by 1.1% m/m in May, after having increased by 0.8% m/m in April.
Manufacturing production for May is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have increased by 0.2% y/y in May, after having improved by 5.3% y/y in April.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have declined by 2.2% in April, following a 5.2% increase in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $86.40/bbl; ($87.54/bbl*).
Gold is at $2383/oz ($2392/oz*).
SA CDS 204bps*, Brazil 158bps* and Turkey 264bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%, German bund at 2.55%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.93%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.75%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF