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In the loop 27 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.02/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.98/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+1.5%), MYR (+1.1%) and ZAR (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.1%), COP (-1.0%) and ARS (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • China's industrial enterprises have posted their first year-on-year profit increase since 2021.
  • Earnings rose 5.3% y/y in December, following a 13.1% y/y contraction in November. 
  • The rebound was driven largely by the equipment manufacturing sector, which emerged as the strongest contributor, accounting for nearly 40% of total industrial profits in 2025. 
  • Industrial profit data is a key gauge of the financial health of factories, mines and utilities, and can influence related investment and production decisions in the months ahead.
 
  • The US FOMC begins its two-day meeting today, and is largely expected to keep its Fed funds rate unchanged. 
  • Attention is expected to centre on how long policymakers intend to pause after this move and whether the committee remains unified behind Chair Jerome Powell. 
  • The meeting is likely to be overshadowed by controversy surrounding Powell, who is under a criminal investigation related to a renovation project at Fed facilities. 
  • Powell has publicly defended the central bank's independence, contending that the legal action represents an attempt to exert undue influence over monetary policy decisions.
 
  • The US S&P Cotality house price index for November is due for release today and is expected to show that growth continued to decelerate on a y/y basis.
  • The FHFA house price index for November is also on the cards today.
  • House prices are likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m in November, following a 0.4% m/m increase in October.
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January is expected to have increased to 91.0, from 89.1 in December.
 
  • Locally, the SARB's leading indicator for November is scheduled for release today; the index increased to 116.7 in October.
  • The coincident indicator, which measures current economic conditions, increased to 96.0 in September, from 95.9 in August.
  • The improvement came on the back of increases in the industrial production index and in formal non-agricultural employment.
  • The lagging indicator increased to 107.9 in September, from 107.0 in August.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 7.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 17.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $65.14/bbl; ($65.59/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $5070/oz ($5008/oz*).
  • SA CDS 134bps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 212bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.21%*, German bund at 2.86%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.23%*, SA's R2035 at 8.09%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: Japan machine tool orders (December – final)
  • 09h00: SA leading indicator (November)
  • 15h15: US ADP weekly employment change (3 January)
  • 16h00: US FHFA house price index (November), S&P Cotality house price index (November)
  • 17h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (January)
 

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