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In the loop 16 November 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.24/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.20/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+2.2%), THB (+1.7%) and RUB (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers, the COP (-1.3%), ARS (-0.8%) and HUF (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down. 
  • China’s new home prices declined by 0.38% m/m (the largest contraction since 2015) in October, following a decline of 0.3% m/m in September.
  • This slippage signals that the property slump is worsening despite the government having ramped up efforts to revive demand. 
  • Stimulus measures, rolled out at major cities since August, have done little to help support a turnaround of the property sector.  
  • The US NAHB housing market index is due out today; the index is likely to have remained unchanged, at 40, in November.
  • Sentiment has deteriorated since August, with more buyers turning to the new housing market amid low inventory levels of existing homes.
  • To attract buyers for new homes, builders have been resorting to offering incentives, such as covering closing costs, free upgrades, and special financing opportunities.
  • However, these types of incentives will continue to dampen demand for existing homes.
  • Higher mortgage rates throughout October likely slowed the pace of building permit issuance and housing starts; the October data is due out on Friday.
  • US industrial production is likely to have fallen by 0.4% m/m in October, after having increased by 0.3% m/m in September.
  • Several auto manufacturers and parts suppliers have slowed their production process due to strike activity in the automotive sector.
  • Manufacturing production is also expected to have declined, by 0.4% m/m in October, from an increase of 0.4% m/m in September.
  • With strike activity now having been resolved, a small rebound in production in November is likely.
  • Nonetheless, survey data has been indicative of weakening demand, implying further declines in US industrial production. 
  • The Philippines Central Bank will meet today and is expected to keep rates on hold after October’s off-meeting hike.
  • Eskom: Stage 2 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm, Stage 3 loadshedding will be implemented then until 5am tomorrow.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and down by 6.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 7.6% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $80.51/bbl; ($81.18/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1963/oz ($1961/oz*).
  • SA CDS 249bps*, Brazil 157bps* and Turkey 355bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.53%*, German bund at 2.6%4* and SA 10-year generic at 11.48%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.19%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 15h30: US initial jobless claims (11 November)
  • 16h15: US industrial production, capacity utilisation, manufacturing production (October)
  • 17h00: US NAHB housing market index (November)

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