In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.66/$, after closing steady yesterday (R16.63/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.3%), CLP (+0.6%) and TWD (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-0.7%), RON (-0.6%) and COP (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Iran war: regional tensions remained elevated; Iran reported that an oil tanker had caught fire after striking mines east of Hormuz.
• Houthi attacks and attempted strikes against Saudi Arabia continued, underscoring the risk that the wider regional conflict could complicate efforts to secure a ceasefire.

• Central bank watch: the US FOMC is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged later today.
• The Bank of Canada is also expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged today.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.75%.
• The RBNZ cited global uncertainty as weighing on domestic demand.
• The Bank of Thailand also held its benchmark interest rate steady today.

• The UK Autumn Budget 2026, due out today, is expected to emphasise fiscal discipline, while balancing pressure for cost-of-living support, stronger growth, and increased defence spending.
• UK Chancellor John Healey has committed to meeting the fiscal rules and maintaining a buffer against uncertainty.
• However, fiscal headroom has reportedly narrowed significantly from the roughly £24bn estimated in March, raising expectations of a combination of targeted tax increases and spending restraint.

• The US Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 91.7 in October, from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September, significantly exceeding market expectations of 81.0. 
• The improvement, which marked the first increase in four months, was driven by more favourable assessments of current business and labour market conditions.
• This came alongside an improvement in expectations for the coming six months. 
• The present situation index increased by 8.6 points, to 120.4 in October.
• The expectations index rose by 6.9 points, to 72.6 October, although remaining below the 80-point threshold historically associated with recession risks. 
• The recovery in sentiment coincided with an easing in gasoline prices, which provided some relief to household budgets.
• Nevertheless, consumers remained concerned about elevated living costs and persistent inflation.

• US new home sales declined by 0.6% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 676,000 units in September, following a downwardly revised 680,000 units in August.
• The reading, however, exceeded market expectations of 650,000 units, suggesting some resilience in housing demand despite elevated borrowing costs. 
• The data reflects persistent affordability constraints amid high mortgage rates and elevated house prices. 
• The median price of a new home increased by 3.9% m/m, to $400,400, in September.

• The US advance goods trade balance for September is due out today; the trade deficit is expected to have narrowed to $130.2bn, from a deficit of $132.1bn in August.

• Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 89.9% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and down by 6.6% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $115.53/bbl; ($113.88/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4034/oz ($4060/oz*).
• SA CDS 132bps*, Brazil 133bps* and Turkey 256bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.99%*, German bund at 3.36%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.76%*, SA's R2035 at 8.57%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data: 

• 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (23 October)
• 14h30: UK Budget 2026
• 14h30: US advance goods trade balance (September)
• 20h00: US FOMC interest rate decision – no change expected 

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