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In the loop 02 April 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.93/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.97/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TRY (+0.7%) and TWD (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.0%), BRL (-0.8%) and CZK (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will meet on Friday and is largely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged, at 6.5%.
  • The RBI is likely to wait until August before cutting interest rates.
  • The UK Nationwide house price data for March today will provide more information on whether the housing market is still gaining momentum.
  • House prices are likely to have increased by 2.4% y/y in March, after having increased by 1.2% y/y in February.
  • The Eurozone ECB meeting minutes of the 6-7 March policy meeting are on the cards for Thursday. 
  • Investors will likely look for clues on when the first interest rate cut might be as well as what will happen after a first move.
  • The Eurozone CPI for March is expected on Wednesday and likely moderated to 2.5% y/y, from an increase of 2.6% y/y in February.
  • Core CPI is likely to have moderated to 3.0% y/y in March, from 3.1% y/y in February.
  • The Turkish CPI for March is due out on Wednesday, with another surge expected, despite a rise in interest rates by 4,150 bps.
  • CPI is likely to come in at 69.0% y/y in March, from 67.1% y/y in February; inflation is on track to reach mid-70% by May.
  • The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for February, due out today, are likely to have fallen further, although the pace of decline is likely to have slowed.
  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for March, due out on Friday, are also expected to have slowed, to 203k, following an increase of 275k in February.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have improved to 3.8% in March, from 3.9% in February. 
  • The US ISM services index for March is due out tomorrow; the index likely increased to 52.8 in March, from 52.6 in February.
  • The advance goods trade balance data for February, scheduled for Thursday, could see the trade deficit widening. 
  • Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for March is due for release today; the index likely slipped to 51.3, from 51.7 in February. 
  • The March Naamsa vehicle sales are also due out today; vehicle sales declined by 0.9% y/y in February. 
  • The industry-wide PMI for March is due out on Thursday; the index is currently above the 50pt benchmark, at 50.8.
  • Electricity production and consumption for February are scheduled for release on Thursday.
  • Eskom: loadshedding has been suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 14.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 9.3% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $87.86/bbl; ($87.42/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2254/oz ($2238/oz*).
  • SA CDS 258bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 303bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.30%*, German bund at 2.29%** and SA 10-year generic at 12.02%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.60%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

** Denotes Thursday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK Nationwide house price index (March)
  • 10h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI (March – final), ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations survey (February)
  • 10h30: UK consumer credit (February), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (March – final)
  • 11h00: SA BER manufacturing PMI (March)
  • 16h00: US JOLTS job openings (February), factory orders, durable goods orders (February)
  • SA Naamsa vehicle sales (March)

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