In the loop 17 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.10/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.09/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the KRW (+0.9%), ARS (+0.8%) and PEN (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.5%), RUB (-0.4%) and HUF (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC will release the minutes from its 28–29 October meeting on Wednesday, a meeting at which Fed Chair Jerome Powell had struck an unusually hawkish tone.
The SARB will meet this week Thursday and is widely expected to cut the repo rate by 25 bps, to 6.75%.
Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, giving earlier rate cuts more time to work through the economy.
China’s loan prime rates are likely to remain unchanged for a sixth consecutive month when the decision is announced on Thursday.

Japan's CPI is in the spotlight this week.
Headline CPI is expected to have remained elevated in October, at 3.0% y/y, from 2.9% y/y in September.

The final estimate of Eurozone CPI for October, due Wednesday, is expected to show headline inflation at 2.1% y/y, unchanged from the previous estimate.
The ECB’s indicator of negotiated wage rates will also be released, providing the first public estimate of pay settlements for Q3:25.
October composite PMI readings for both the Eurozone and the UK will offer an early gauge of economic activity heading into the final quarter of the year.
In the UK, headline CPI is expected to have slowed in October, reinforcing evidence that inflation has peaked.
Inflation is forecast at 3.5% y/y, down from 3.8% y/y in September, with the main downward pressure likely coming from lower household energy bills.

The US Empire Manufacturing Survey for November is due out today and is expected to have fallen to 5.8, from 10.7 in October.
The ongoing US government shutdown likely disrupted data collection and the measurement of industrial production for October.
Industrial production data for October is scheduled for release tomorrow.
Also due on Tuesday is the NAHB housing market index for November.
Builder confidence in the new single-family home market likely extended its recent momentum, after rising 5 pts in October, to the highest level since April.
The release of housing starts and building permits, however, remains uncertain following the government’s reopening.
The non-farm payrolls report for September will be published on Thursday.
Payrolls are expected to have increased by 50,000, following a gain of 22,000 in August.
The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged, at 4.3%.
Existing home sales for October are also due Thursday and are expected to have risen 0.7% m/m, after a 1.5% m/m increase in September, as falling mortgage rates likely supported contract signings.
In early November, consumers grew increasingly concerned about the economic effects of the prolonged government shutdown.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to have edged up slightly to 50.8 in November, from its previous estimate of 50.3.

Locally, the October CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected to have increased to 3.7% y/y, from 3.4% y/y in September.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, matching September’s increase.
Core CPI is projected at 3.2% y/y in October, also matching September’s print.
September’s retail sales, also due on Wednesday, are expected to reflect growth of 3.0% y/y, accelerating from a 2.3% y/y increase in August.

In its scheduled review of SA’s sovereign credit rating on Friday, S&P resolved the positive outlook that it had instated a year ago, with a rating upgrade.
It was widely expected that the positive outlook would be resolved with an upgrade, though there was some debate about whether it would be done now or after next year’s Budget.
S&P’s new foreign currency rating for SA now matches the Moody’s rating (at BB and Ba2 respectively, the second notch below investment grade).
S&P’s local currency rating is one notch higher than its foreign currency rating.
S&P awarded a one notch uplift to SA’s local currency rating owing to SA’s deep and liquid domestic financial market.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.76/bbl; ($64.39/bbl*).
Gold is at $4053/oz ($4084/oz*).
SA CDS 145bps*, Brazil 143bps* and Turkey 246bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.14%*, German bund at 2.72%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.74%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.63%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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