In the loop 19 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is unchanged this morning, at R16.40/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.40/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the ARS (+0.9%), RUB (+0.3%) and PHP (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the INR (-0.6%), KRW (-0.4%) and ZAR (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum commences in Davos today.
Discussions are expected to focus prominently on exploring pathways for inclusive and innovation?driven growth in a slowing and uncertain global economy.

Central bank watch: the BOJ is due to meet on Friday and is largely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady.
Bank Indonesia is also expected to hold its key rate steady, on Thursday, maintaining the interest rate differential to support the rupiah.
Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to hold its overnight policy rate steady on Friday.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to cut its benchmark lending rate by 150 bps on Thursday.
The pace of easing will likely remain measured beyond that given the elevated inflation outlook in the region.

Japan’s December CPI report, due just before the BOJ policy decision on Friday, is likely to show that inflation has cooled.
The details may present more evidence to justify higher rates.

The Eurozone CPI print for December (final estimate) is on the cards today and is expected to come in at 2.0% y/y, matching November’s increase.
Attention will also be on the minutes of the ECB’s December meeting, due out on Friday.
The UK CPI report for December will likely reflect that inflation climbed in December.
CPI is expected to come in at 3.3% y/y in December, from 3.2% y/y in November.
The UK labour market data for November is scheduled for release tomorrow.
The data is expected to show a further cooling in the jobs market.
Composite PMIs for January for both the Eurozone and the UK and will likely point to economic expansion in both regions at the start of the year.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, for October and November, is due for release on Thursday.
Monthly core PCE inflation was likely up 0.3% in October and 0.2% in November.
The updated estimate of the Q3:25 US GDP print is scheduled for release on Thursday.
GDP is expected to come in at 4.3% y/y in Q3:25, from 3.8% y/y in Q2:25.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index tor January is on the cards on Friday and is expected to have remained unchanged, at 54.0.
Consumers remain anxious about labour market conditions, which may keep overall sentiment depressed.

Locally, mining production for November is due out tomorrow; production is likely to have increased by 5.0% y/y, down from 5.8% y/y in October.
The December CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected to have increased to 3.6% y/y, from 3.5% y/y in November.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, after having declined by 0.1% in November.
Core CPI is projected at 3.4% y/y in December, from 3.2% m/m in November.
The November retail sales data on Wednesday may show sales growth of 2.7% y/y, down from a 2.9% y/y increase in October.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.15/bbl; ($64.13/bbl*).
Gold is at $4671/oz ($4596/oz*).
SA CDS 138bps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 216bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.22%*, German bund at 2.83%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.46%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.33%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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