Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 30 September 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.09/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.11/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the TWD (+0.6%), KRW (+0.5%) and MYR (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.8%), COP (-0.5%) and MXN (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the National Bank of Poland will meet on Wednesday and is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold, at 5.75%. 
 
  • China’s manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8 in September, from 49.1 in August, while the services PMI slipped to 50 in September, from 50.3 in August.
  • Th composite PMI held above the 50pt benchmark, at 50.4 in September, from 50.1 in August. 
  • The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction in September, coming in at 49.3, from 50.4 in August.
  • Both the services and composite PMIs slipped in September but remained above the 50pt benchmark.
  • Today’s data supports the case for stronger policy action to tackle economic challenges.
  • Japan’s industrial output declined 3.3% m/m in August, after having increased by 3.1% m/m in July. 
  • The data adds to signs that Japan’s economic recovery may lose momentum in Q3:24.
  • Several countries’ CPI data for September, including Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are due out this week.
 
  • The UK Nationwide house price index for September is due out today; the index is likely to show a gradual recovery in the housing market following the interest rate cut by the BOE in August. 
  • Eurozone CPI for September is in the spotlight this week; headline CPI is likely to come in below the ECB’s 2% inflation target (for the first time since 2021) at 1.8% y/y in September, from 2.2% y/y in August.
  • Core and services measures are also likely to decline, albeit slightly, in September.
  • CPI data releases for Switzerland and Turkey for September are also due this week and are likely to have decelerated.
 
  • The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for August, scheduled for release tomorrow, are likely to have fallen further.
  • The August JOLTS print likely slowed down to 7.650 million, from 7.673 million in July.
  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for September, in the spotlight on Friday, are expected to have increased, by 145k, following an increase of 142k in July.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.2%, in September. 
  • The US ISM manufacturing index for September is due out tomorrow; an increase is expected on the back of improvements in new orders, production and backlogs.
  • The ISM services index for September is scheduled for release on Thursday; services activity in September likely maintained a similar pace to August.
 
  • Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for August are due on Friday. 
  • PSCE is likely to come in at 4.25% y/y in August, from 3.5% y/y in July.
  • The monthly budget balance data for August is also on the cards today; the budget deficit is likely to have narrowed to R21.1bn, from a R79.9bn deficit in July. 
  • The August trade balance is scheduled for release today; a trade surplus of R19.1bn is expected, from R17.6bn in July.
  • The BER manufacturing PMI for September is due for release tomorrow; the index is slipped to 43.6 in August, from 52.4 in July.
  • The September Naamsa vehicle sales are also due out tomorrow; vehicle sales likely declined by 1.7% y/y in September, after having fallen by 4.9% y/y in August.
  • The industry-wide PMI for September is due out on Thursday; the index is currently just above the 50pt benchmark, at 50.5.
  • Electricity production and consumption for August are scheduled for release on Thursday.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 6.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 28.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $72.35/bbl; ($71.98/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2656/oz ($2658/oz*).
  • SA CDS 177bps*, Brazil 151bps* and Turkey 267bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.75%*, German bund at 2.13%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.92%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.06%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: SA M3 and PSCE (August)
  • 08h00: UK Nationwide house price index (September), GDP (Q2:24 – final), current account balance (Q2:24)
  • 10h30: UK consumer credit (August)
  • 14h00: SA trade balance (August), monthly budget balance (August)
 

Read PDF