In the loop
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.74/$, after closing unchanged yesterday (R18.72/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.8%), MXN (+0.2%) and HUF (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers, the CLP (-1.1%), KRW (-0.6%) and THB (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
- In the US, CPI for October is expected to have moderated to 3.3% y/y, from 3.7% y/y in September.
- On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to come in at 0.1% in October, after having increased by 0.4% in September.
- This moderation is expected on the back of declining global energy prices.
- Core CPI is expected to have remained unchanged in October, at 4.1% y/y.
- Today’s data could support the case for the Fed to keep the Fed funds rate steady at the last FOMC meeting for this year, on 12-13 December.
- The NFIB small business optimism, also due out today, is likely to have remained depressed in October, after dipping in September.
- The September reported highlighted that owners expected business conditions to deteriorate amid a weaker sales outlook and reduced profit margins.
- Small business owners have been struggling to fill positions due to a limited pool of qualified workers.
- UK jobs data will likely offer further evidence of labour demand cooling and wage pressures softening.
- The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has suspended the release of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) data temporarily due to a lower response rate.
- The release of the LFS will resume in December with estimates for unemployment, employment, and inactivity.
- The upcoming release should, however, provide enough data to reassure the central bank that policy is working.
- Vacancies are likely to have continued their downtrend in October, while employment is expected to have fallen.
- The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 4.2%, in the three months to October.
- The German ZEW survey expectations for November are due out today and likely increased to 5.0, from -1.1 in October.
- The current conditions component of the index was under pressure in October, which highlights the risk of growth struggling to pick up pace in the short term.
- Locally, Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is scheduled for release today; the unemployment rate is likely to have slipped to 32.5% in Q3:23, from 32.6% in Q2:23.
- Eskom: Stage 1 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm, Stage 3 loadshedding will be implemented then until 5am tomorrow.
- Brent crude oil is up this morning, and down by 3.6% year-to-date.
- The gold price is down this morning, and up by 6.6% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $82.85/bbl; ($82.52/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1944/oz ($1945/oz*).
- SA CDS 266bps*, Brazil 166bps* and Turkey 379bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 4.64%*, German bund at 2.71%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.70%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.41%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 09h00: UK jobless claims (October), average weekly earnings (September)
- 11h30: SA unemployment rate (Q3:23)
- 12h00: Germany ZEW Survey Expectations (November), GDP (Q3:23), employment (Q3:23)
- 13h00: US NFIB small business optimism (October)
- 15h30: US CPI (October)