In the loop 22 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.45/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.44/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.0%), ZAR (+0.4%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the TWD (-0.4%), KRW (-0.3%) and CLP (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: the US continued with strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including command centres, missile and drone launch facilities, air-defence systems and maritime assets.
Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting US-linked facilities in the Gulf.
Despite the military escalation, diplomatic channels remained open.
It's been reported that indirect US-Iran contacts continued through regional mediators, with discussions centred on a potential ceasefire or temporary truce.
President Trump, however, noted that although Iran may want to meet, the US has "no interest" until Iran is ready to engage in a "meaningful way".

Central bank watch: the Central Bank of Sri Lanka held its policy rate unchanged, at 8.75%, after hiking by 100 bps in May.
The central bank noted that inflation expectations remain well-anchored over the medium term.
The bank expects credit growth and demand pressures to ease in the coming months.
Bank Indonesia is likely to lift its key rate by 25 bps, to 6.0%, today.

UK CPI for June is due out today and is expected to have eased to 2.7% y/y, from a 2.8% y/y increase May.
This expected easing will likely have been driven predominantly by fuel prices.
Consumer prices are likely to have increased by 0.1% in June, following a 0.2% increase in May.
Core CPI is expected to have moderated to 2.5% y/y in June, 2.6% y/y in May.
Oil prices currently pose the biggest risk to the UK inflation outlook.
UK house prices for May are also scheduled for release today.

Locally, the June CPI is due out today and is expected to come in at 4.7% y/y, from 4.5% y/y in May.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.5%, after having increased by 0.7% m/m in May.
Core CPI is projected at 3.9% y/y in June, from 3.8% y/y in May.
May retail sales are expected to reflect growth of 1.9% y/y, up from a 1.3% y/y increase in April.
Sales are expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in May, following a 0.9% m/m increase in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $92.37/bbl; ($91.01/bbl*).
Gold is at $4124/oz ($4076/oz*).
SA CDS 129bps*, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 237bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.63%*, German bund at 3.16%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.70%*, SA's R2035 at 8.53%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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