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In the loop 16 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.32/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.36/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+0.5%), TWD (+0.2%) and PLN (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the PEN (-1.5%), COP (-0.7%) and PHP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Iran war: the situation eased somewhat yesterday as diplomatic efforts to prevent a renewed escalation intensified.
  • Officials from Iran and the US signalled a willingness to return to negotiations.
 
  • China's economy grew by 5.0% y/y in Q1:26, from 4.5% y/y in Q4:25.
  • This increase was driven by stronger industrial production, resilient exports, and continued policy support.
  • However, domestic demand remained softer.
 
  • BOE policymaker Megan Greene yesterday said that markets were justified in scaling back expectations for interest rate hikes after last month's surge in pricing. 
  • She noted that the current market view, which implies two or fewer rate increases this year, is “about right”.
  • Further, Greene warned that the UK could still experience “mini waves” of inflation in the coming months, even if the war were to end immediately.
 
  • The UK's monthly GDP release for February is expected to show that the economy started the year on a more positive footing.
  • GDP is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in February, after stagnating in January.
  • Industrial and manufacturing output data for February will also be released.
  • Industrial production is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in February, after having declined by 0.1% m/m in January.
  • Manufacturing output is forecast to have increased by 0.3% m/m, following a 0.1% m/m decline in January.
 
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned yesterday that the Fed faces “a little bit of danger on two fronts” while inflation remains above its 2% target. 
  • He said that if oil prices stayed elevated, consumer inflation expectations might rise significantly.
  • This is in addition to tariff-driven price pressures and creating a “double danger” for policymakers. 
  • Goolsbee added that, whenever inflation remains well above target for an extended period, the risk of it becoming more entrenched, increases.
  • Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she remains focused on inflation having been too high for too long, which continues to warrant close monitoring. 
  • Her baseline expectation is that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold for some time.
  • She did not rule out either rate hikes or cuts, depending on how conditions evolve.
 
  • The US NAHB housing market index fell in April, to 34, from 38 in March, below the consensus expectation of 37, and marking its lowest level since September 2025. 
  • Elevated mortgage rates, rising building material costs and broader economic uncertainty weighed on demand at the start of the spring selling season. 
 
  • The US Fed Beige Book indicated that US economic activity was broadly little changed to modestly higher since the previous report. 
  • However, it highlighted that uncertainty remained elevated across many regions.
  • Businesses reported cautious consumer spending, softer demand in some discretionary categories, and growing concerns about the impact of tariffs and higher input costs. 
  • Labour market conditions were generally stable; hiring was described as selective, and wage growth moderate rather than accelerating. 
  • Price pressures persisted, with many businesses noting difficulty absorbing higher costs and an increased willingness to pass costs on to customers. 
 
  • Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 56.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 11.9% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $95.00/bbl; ($94.93/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4833/oz ($4791/oz*).
  • SA CDS 149bps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 234bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 3.04%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.55%*, SA's R2035 at 8.37%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK Monthly GDP (February), industrial production (February), manufacturing production (February), visible trade balance (February)
  • 11h00: Eurozone CPI (March - final)
  • 14h30: US initial jobless claims (11 April)
  • 15h15: US industrial production (March), manufacturing production (March), capacity utilisation (March)
 

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