In the loop 23 September 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R16.19/$ this morning, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.22/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+1.3%), THB (+0.3%) and CLP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.6%), HUF (-0.5%) and RON (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: President Donald Trump delivered a combative speech at the UN General Assembly yesterday.
He said that he faced a “big decision” over the Iran war and that the options for Iran were “potential greatness of obliteration”.
Trump threatened that he could “annihilate the Islamic republic and do it quickly” if they did not agree to a deal that “lets them rebuild”.
Senior US officials had held direct talks with Iranian counterparts on the sidelines of the gathering, for the first time since June, despite Trump's hostile address just hours before.
Trump later said that his envoy had “a very good meeting” and predicted that a peace agreement would be reached after November's US midterm elections, complaining that Iran was waiting that out.
The Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will address the UN General Assembly today.
The war in Ukraine will also be in focus with an address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Central Bank watch: the SARB's MPC will announce their decision on rates this afternoon.
The bank kept the policy rate unchanged at their July meeting, after raising rates by 25 bps in May.
The latest oil price spike has likely tilted the odds from a pause to another hike at today's MPC meeting, though a rate hike is arguably still not a done deal.
Some committee members may still be inclined to look through the supply shock amid the absence of clear second-round and/or demand-pull inflation pressure.
Real interest rates remain elevated (and restrictive) despite growing evidence of the obvious pressure on consumers from spiking fuel prices.
The latest fuel price spike, however, veers towards one of the scenarios that the MPC presented in its July Monetary Policy Statement.
That scenario centred around oil prices at about $100/bbl in 2026, which the bank's model estimated would require one more interest rate hike.
Recent tightening by other central banks – notably the Fed's first rate hike since the start of the Iran war – also supports further domestic tightening insofar as it signals increased concern about the global inflation outlook.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin has warned that supply shocks are no longer proving to be one-offs, or temporary, causing persistent inflation pressures.
“These may pass in time, but I do expect it will take time”, Barkin said, referring to both high energy prices and trade tariffs.
“In the interim, there is a risk that current elevated levels of inflation could affect future inflation”, he noted.
“The economy and the labour market remain on solid footing”, he added.
Barkin emphasised that higher interest rates has a role to play in taming price pressures.

A slew of PMI data for September will be released today.
The UK's S&P Global composite PMI is expected to have remained in expansion, but might have softened slightly, to 52.0 in September, from 52.5 in August.
The US S&P Global composite PMI is also seen just slightly softer, at 55.3 in September, from 56.0 in August.
Eurozone activity likely similarly decelerated, with the region's S&P Global composite PMI expected at 51.7 in September, down from 52.0 in August.
Both manufacturing and services activity is seen to have decelerated slightly in these key markets.
The OECD's Interim Economic Outlook is also due out today.

Locally, the CPI release for August kicks off a busy day.
CPI inflation is expected to have increased slightly, to 4.6% y/y in August, from 4.3% y/y in July.
Fuel prices were mixed in August, with petrol prices falling 50c/litre and diesel prices rising 139c/litre; petrol has a significantly higher weight in the CPI basket.
In m/m terms, CPI likely rose around 0.2% in August, matching July's increase.
Core inflation is expected to have remained in the region of 4.2% y/y in August.
This will be followed by the SARB's MPC announcement this afternoon, with a rate hike of 25 bps expected.

Brent crude oil is currently at $98.34/bbl; ($99.25/bbl*).
Gold is at $4338/oz ($4336/oz*).
SA CDS 124bps*, Brazil 120bps* and Turkey 238bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.96%*, German bund at 3.46%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.78%*, SA's R2035 at 8.57%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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