In the loop 21 September 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R16.24/$ this morning, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.25/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MYR (+0.4%), TWD (+0.3%) and CNY (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.5%), COP (-0.5%) and HUF (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets, the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite, are up this morning.

Iran war: Iran has warned that it would retaliate “without limitations” if the US launches new strikes, while Qatar intensified mediation efforts to revive negotiations and prevent a renewed escalation.
Tehran outlined conditions for re-engaging in talks with Washington through Qatari intermediaries, signalling that diplomacy remains active despite the ongoing conflict.
Fighting continued to intensify in Yemen and the Red Sea, with growing regional efforts to protect shipping routes and contain the wider fallout.

Central bank watch: the SARB's MPC will meet this week, with their announcement of their decision on rates on Wednesday afternoon.
The bank kept the policy rate unchanged at their July meeting after raising rates by 25 bps in May.
The inflation outlook has worsened since July, with the major risk – protracted conflict in the Middle East keeping oil prices elevated – materialising.
Globally, major central banks have opted to hike rates given more persistent pressure on inflation.
The likelihood of a 25 bps hike at this week's MPC meeting has risen notably, although it could still be a close call.
The lack of clear evidence of second-round impacts of the supply shock on broader inflation or inflation expectations could provide room to look through the latest resurgence in oil and fuel prices.
A range of Fed and ECB policymakers are due to speak throughout this week.

The US is hosting China for a summit this week, the first since President Xi visited the US in 2017 shortly before Trump started his first term as president.
The summit follows President Trump's state visit to Beijing four months ago.
A range of issues, including AI, Taiwan, Iran and the possibility of extending the one-year trade war truce signed last October, are due to be discussed.
The high-stakes summit will see Trump welcoming Xi on Wednesday, ahead of talks on Thursday.

UK house prices rose on a m/m basis in September, according to Rightmove.
House prices increased 0.7% m/m, after having declined by 2.0% in August.
In y/y terms, house prices were still down 0.8% in September; house prices recorded -1.0% y/y in August.
The national average asking price stood at £367,440 in September.
London house prices were up 1.8% m/m in September, reaching £657,775; in y/y terms, London house prices are down 2.6% in September.

A key focus this week will be the release of PMI data for September, mostly on Wednesday.
The UK's S&P Global composite PMI is expected to have remained in expansionary terrain, but might have softened slightly to 52.0 in September, from 52.5 in August.
The US S&P Global composite PMI is also seen softer at 54.7 in September, from 56.0 in August.
Eurozone activity likely similarly decelerated, with the region's S&P Global composite PMI expected at 51.8 in September, down from 52.0 in August.
Both manufacturing and services activity is seen to have decelerated slightly in these key markets.
Eurozone consumer confidence for September is due out on Tuesday.
Consumer confidence is expected to have remained at a relatively low level, with the index likely dipping marginally, to -16.0 from -15.5 in August.

Locally, tomorrow will see the release of the SARB's business cycle indicators for July.
The leading indicator dipped to 116.6 in June, from 118.2 in May.
CPI inflation for August is due out on Wednesday morning.
CPI likely accelerated slightly to around 4.5% y/y in August, from 4.3% y/y in July.
In m/m terms, CPI likely rose around 0.1% in August after increasing 0.2% in July.
Core inflation is expected to remain in the region of 4.2% y/y in August.
The SARB's MPC decision on the policy rate on Wednesday afternoon will be the key focus this week.

Brent crude oil is currently at $102.04/bbl; ($103.87/bbl*).
Gold is at $4357/oz ($4379/oz*).
SA CDS 115bps*, Brazil 111bps* and Turkey 233bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.00%*, German bund at 3.52%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.88%*, SA's R2035 at 8.67%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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