Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 12 May 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.23/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.20/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.6%), MXN (+0.6%) and PLN (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.4%), THB (-0.6%) and PEN (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • The UK GDP for Q1:25, due on Thursday, is expected to have increased 0.6% q/q, after having increased 0.1% q/q in Q4:24.
  • This increase is expected on the back of a boost in manufacturing output due to industries sensitive to US demand ramping up production in anticipation of a spike in spending before the implementation of US tariffs.
  • UK labour data for March is on the cards for tomorrow; wage growth is expected to have slowed for the three months ending in March.
  • Eurozone industrial production for March is scheduled for release on Thursday.
 
  • The US April CPI will be in focus on Wednesday and is likely to come in at 2.4% y/y, matching March’s print.
  • On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in April, after having declined by 0.1% in March.
  • The NFIB small business optimism index for April, due out tomorrow, is likely to have slipped further, to 95.0, from 97.4 in March.
  • PPI for April, out on Thursday, is expected at 2.5% y/y, from 2.7% y/y in March. 
  • The Empire manufacturing survey for April is due out on Thursday; trade uncertainty is likely to have crimped sentiment in May.
  • The US NAHB housing market index for May is also due for release on Thursday.
  • Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes likely held steady in May.
  • Housing starts and building permits for April are due out on Friday.
  • Housing starts have proved especially volatile in recent months.
  • Housing starts are likely to have increased in April, while building permits are expected to have slipped.
  • The University of Michigan sentiment index for May is due out on Friday.
  • The sentiment index is likely to have improved to 53.3 in May, from 52.2 in April.
 
  • Locally, Stats SA releases the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) tomorrow for Q1:25; the unemployment rate improved to 31.9% in Q4:24, from 32.1% in Q3:24.
  • Mining production for March is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have declined by 4.6% y/y in March, following a 9.6% y/y decline in February.
  • Mining production declined by 4.4% m/m in March. 
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 13.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 24.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $64.31/bbl; ($63.91/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3275/oz ($3324/oz*).
  • SA CDS 228bps*, Brazil 179bps* and Turkey 332bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.40%*, German bund at 2.56%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.55%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.50%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 20h00: US Federal Budget balance (April)
 

Read PDF