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In the loop 26 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.92/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.94/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.5%), ZAR (+0.5%) and INR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.0%), CLP (-0.2%) and ARS (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: there has been meaningful progress towards a partial resumption of shipping.
  • Iran and Oman announced discussions on a temporary joint navigation corridor through the Strait as part of a phased framework to restore commercial traffic.
  • Oman said that it hoped the temporary corridor could be announced soon.
  • Both countries agreed to continue technical negotiations on a permanent shipping arrangement and future administration of the waterway.
  • Iranian officials have stressed that this does not amount to a full reopening of the Strait.
 
  • Trade wars: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney yesterday responded to President Trump's latest tariffs with matching measures on US goods and announced support for Canadian businesses affected by the trade dispute.
  • He announced that Canada would double its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminium products to 50% and impose new duties on a range of other US goods, including furniture, clothing and electronics.
  • The government unveiled a C$7.5bn support package for affected businesses, including liquidity assistance, grants and an extension of employment insurance programmes in impacted sectors.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Central Bank of Thailand is likely to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.00% today.
 
  • Boston Fed President Susan Collins yesterday said she supported keeping interest rates unchanged for now, provided that inflation continues to move towards the Fed's 2% target. 
  • She stressed that maintaining the current Fed funds rate range would require further evidence of sustained progress on inflation.
  • However, Collins warned that it could be appropriate to tighten policy soon if that progress failed to materialise. 
  • She also highlighted upside risks to inflation from further adverse supply shocks and stronger-than-expected economic activity, including upward pressure on core goods prices from the AI-driven investment boom.
 
  • The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for August undershot expectations; the index slipped to 89.5, from a revised 90.2 in July.
  • The deterioration came on the back of decline in the expectations index in August, which slipped to 68.2, from 74.0 in July.
  • The present situation index improved to 121.2 in August, from 114.4 in July.
  • Consumers reported a more positive assessment of current labour market conditions, with perceptions of job availability improving during the month.
  • However, they became increasingly pessimistic about future business conditions and employment prospects, while expectations for household income growth softened.
  • Concerns about inflation and higher energy costs remained elevated, and references to jobs, trade, food prices and global conflicts increased in survey responses.
 
  • New home sales weakened significantly in July, with sales of new single-family homes falling 10.5% m/m, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 units, down from 678,000 in June.
  • Sales were also down 6.3% y/y in July, highlighting the ongoing pressure that elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints are placing on housing demand.
  • The median sales price declined to $393,800 in July, down both from June and from a year earlier, suggesting that builders may be offering price concessions to attract buyers.
  • The July data point to continued weakness in the US housing market as high borrowing costs remain a significant headwind to demand.
 
  • The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge for July, the core PCE deflator, due out today, is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in June.
  • Personal income is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in July, matching June's increase.
  • Personal spending is likely to have increased by 0.1% m/m in July, after having increased by 0.3% in June.
  • The updated estimate of Q2:26 US GDP is also scheduled for release today.
  • GDP is expected at 1.5% q/q (annualised) in Q2:26, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 2.1% q/q (annualised) in Q1:26.
  • Durable goods orders for July, also due out today, likely increased by 0.5%, following an increase of the same amount in June.
 
  • Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 42.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 7.5% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $86.86/bbl; ($92.17/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4646/oz ($4657/oz*).
  • SA CDS 118bps*, Brazil 120bps* and Turkey 218bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.62%*, German bund at 3.20%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.64%*, SA's R2035 at 8.42%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (21 August)
  • 14h30: US personal income and spending (July), core PCE deflator (July), durable goods orders (July), GDP (Q2:26)
 

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