In the loop 09 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.13/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.14/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.9%), CLP (+0.9%) and ZAR (+0.3) were the biggest gainers; the PLN (-1.4%), CZK (-0.7%) and BGN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the central bank of the Philippines is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5% today.

BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill has emphasised that monetary policymakers should remain focused on their core mandate of tackling inflation.
He called for a return to “conservative central banking”.
He cautioned against central banks adopting “fragile optimising approaches” to stimulate growth in an environment of “radical uncertainty and profound structural change”.
Pill stressed that the primary objective of monetary policy should be achieving “price stability over the medium term”.
Further, he urged central banks to stay firmly committed to that goal.

The UK housing market remained under pressure in September 2025.
The UK’s Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance came in at -15%, from an upwardly revised -18% in August.
Despite this slight uptick, the reading remains firmly in negative territory, indicating that more surveyors continue to report falling rather than rising prices.
The data suggests that the housing market is still grappling with subdued momentum.
Buyer demand weakened further in September, with the net balance for new buyer enquiries slipping to -19%, a third consecutive monthly decline.
Agreed sales also remained in negative territory, at -16%, a slight improvement from -24% in August.

The minutes of the US FOMC’s September policy meeting showed policymakers as open to further lowering the Fed funds rate this year.
Many, however, remained cautious amid ongoing inflation concerns.
The FOMC voted 11–1 to cut rates by 25 bps, to a range of 4.00-4.25%, with one member in favour of a larger 50 bps cut.
The Fed’s updated projections indicated that policymakers expect two additional 25 bps cuts before year-end.
Several policymakers noted the risks to the labour market as having risen, though most agreed that a sharp deterioration in employment would be unlikely.
Since the September meeting, a number of policymakers have continued to highlight labour market softness as justification for further easing.

Locally, manufacturing production data for August will be published today; production is likely to have declined by 0.4% y/y in August, after having fallen by 0.7% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, production is expected to have increased by 0.1% in August, following a 0.5% decline in July.

Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a US-brokered peace plan aimed at ending the war in the Gaza Strip.
The initial phase of the deal includes a ceasefire, the release of all hostages held by Hamas, and an Israeli military withdrawal to a designated line within Gaza.
Israel is expected to release Palestinian prisoners as part of a hostage-prisoner exchange.
Markets are responding positively to the announcement, reflecting cautious optimism that the ceasefire could reduce geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
Oil prices, which spiked during the height of the conflict due to concerns over regional supply disruptions, eased following the news.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.99/bbl; ($66.25/bbl*).
Gold is at $4037/oz ($4042/oz*).
SA CDS 163bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 258bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.11%*, German bund at 2.67%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.19%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.07%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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