In the loop 05 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.95/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.93/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PHP (+1.4%), THB (+1.3%) and MYR (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.4%), PLN (-0.3%) and CZK (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

The EU noted yesterday that it will be suspending its package of retaliatory tariffs that it had planned to impose on the US by six months.
The EU noted that it is still working with the US to finalize a joint statement on their trade deal.
Furthermore, the EU added that it expects the US to soon announce executive actions to formalize the bloc's lower tariffs for cars, and grant exemptions from levies for some industrial goods.
The US has imposed 15% tariffs on most of the EU’s exports under the terms agreed.
This applies to cars and any future sectoral measures targeting pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

President Trump yesterday threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil.
This follows the 25% tariff imposed last week.
President Trump indicated that India is buying massive amounts of oil from Russia and then reselling it on the open market for big profits.
He added that India is not concerned about the Russia-Ukraine war.
He stressed that India is disregarding the humanitarian impact of the war.
President Trump did not specify the timing or exact scale of the proposed tariff increases.

US factory orders fell by 4.8% m/m in June, after having increased by 8.3% m/m in May.
The decline came on the back of a plunge in commercial aircraft orders, which reversed the surge in aeroplane orders that had driven the upswing in orders in May.
The manufacturing sector remains constrained by President Trump’s aggressive tariffs on imported goods.
The ISM manufacturing index for July, which was released on Friday, showed US factory activity falling to a nine-month low.

The US trade balance, due out today, will likely see the deficit narrowing in June as imports fell amid a large pullback in consumer goods.
The ISM services index for July may see services activity having expanded at a marginally faster pace.

Locally, the industry-wide PMI for July is due out today; the index is currently around the 50 benchmark, at 50.1.

Brent crude oil is currently at $68.54/bbl; ($68.76/bbl*).
Gold is at $3371/oz ($3373/oz*).
SA CDS 189bps*, Brazil 149bps* and Turkey 281bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.19%*, German bund at 2.62%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.69%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.61%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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