In the loop 20 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.33/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.36/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the BRL (+0.6%), COP (+0.4%) and MXN (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-3.9%), RUB (-1.2%) and KRW (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central Bank Watch: the Turkish central bank is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate on Thursday.
The decision is likely to be a close call between a modest cut and keeping rates unchanged.
Bank Indonesia is likely to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday to support growth.
The Bank of Korea may hold its base rate at 2.50% on Thursday.

China’s economic growth slowed for the second consecutive quarter in Q3:25, with GDP at 4.8% y/y (the slowest in a year), from 5.2% y/y in Q2:25.
Trade headwinds and a domestic economic slump continued to weigh on economic activity in Q3:25; investment also slowed in Q3:25.
Japan's September inflation report, out on Friday, should show price pressures remain firm, with core inflation above the BOJ's 2% target.

UK CPI data for September, due on Wednesday, is expected to show inflation rising to 4.0% y/y, from 3.8% y/y in August.
The October composite PMI surveys for the Eurozone and the UK will offer an early indication of economic activity heading into Q4:25.

The US government shutdown is entering its fourth week, disrupting the release of several key economic reports.
The delayed September CPI data is now scheduled for release on Friday.
Headline inflation is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y in September, from 2.9% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis CPI is projected to have increased by 0.4%, matching the prior month’s pace.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y.
On Thursday, existing home sales data for September will be released, with falling mortgage rates likely providing some support to housing market activity.
With few other major releases on the calendar, the preliminary October PMIs are likely to attract more attention than usual.
The Fed enters its blackout period this week ahead of the 28–29 October FOMC meeting.

Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for August is due out tomorrow; the index increased to 113.7 in July.
On Wednesday, the September CPI is due and is expected to come in 3.4% y/y, from 3.3% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, from a -0.1% decline in August.
Core CPI is projected at 3.1% y/y in September, matching August’s outcome.

Brent crude oil is currently at $61.03/bbl; ($61.29/bbl*).
Gold is at $4259/oz ($4251/oz*).
SA CDS 170bps*, Brazil 147bps* and Turkey 273bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.00%*, German bund at 2.58%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.13%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.00%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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