In the loop 27 November 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.81/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.77/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the CLP (+0.8%), COP (+0.7%) and MXN (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers, the RUB (-0.7%), KRW (-0.7%) and THB (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

In Asia, China’s official manufacturing PMI for November is due out on Thursday; the manufacturing PMI is likely to have remained unchanged, in contraction.
The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slowdown in growth.
Japan’s industrial production, due out on Thursday, likely dropped modestly in October.
Japan’s labour market appears to have remained tight in October; the unemployment rate, due out on Friday, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 1.29%.
The central banks in New Zealand, Thailand and South Korea will meet this week to decide on rates; expectations are for rates to be held steady.

Eurozone CPI is in the spotlight this week (on Thursday); CPI is likely to have moderated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.9% y/y in October.
Such a print would add to the ECB’s confidence to keep rates on hold when meeting next month.
The UK housing data for October, due out on Friday, should provide further information on whether the market is stabilizing.
GDP data from Sweden and Turkey for Q3:23 will be released this week.

US new home sales for October, due out today, likely declined by 4.7% m/m, after having increased by 12.3% m/m in September.
The Conference Board consumer confidence index for November is due out on Tuesday; the index will likely slip to 101, from 102.6 in October.
The US Q3:23 GDP print (second estimate), due out on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 5.0% q/q, from 2.9% q/q in Q2:23.
The Fed will refer to this version of the Beige Book, due out on Wednesday, at the 12-13 December FOMC meeting.
The Fed will look to see whether real economic data concurs with the general view based on anecdotes.
Personal income and spending data for October will be released on Thursday.
Personal income is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m, from 0.3% m/m in September.
Spending is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October, after having increased by 0.7% m/m in September.

Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for October are due out on Wednesday.
PSCE is expected to come in at 4.3% y/y in October, from 4.6% y/y in September.
PPI for October, scheduled for release on Thursday, is expected to come in at 5.8% y/y, from 5.1% y/y in September.
The monthly Budget balance data for October is scheduled for release on Thursday.
The October trade surplus, scheduled for release on Thursday, is likely to have compressed to R8.1bn, from R13.1bn in September.
The BER manufacturing PMI for November is scheduled for release on Friday; the index likely slipped to 45.0, from 45.4 in October.
The November Naamsa vehicle sales, also due out on Friday, are expected to have fallen by 5.6% y/y, after having fallen by 2.0% y/y in October.
Eskom: Stage 3 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm; Stage 4 loadshedding will be implemented then.

Brent crude oil is currently at $79.84/bbl; ($80.58/bbl*).
Gold is at $2012/oz ($2000/oz*).
SA CDS 240bps*, Brazil 147bps* and Turkey 336bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.46%*, German bund at 2.64%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.46%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.19%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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