In the loop 08 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.27/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.25/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+1.1%), RUB (+0.9%) and COP (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.6%), MXN (-0.5%) and ARS (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: progress in talks was offset by lingering security risks in the Gulf, leaving markets and policymakers closely watching whether diplomatic momentum would translate into a more durable peace settlement.
The US has launched a series of strikes against Iran yesterday in retaliation against commercial vessels being attacked in the Strait.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 2.5%.
The central bank noted that future interest rate hikes would depend on all incoming data and economic activity.

The minutes of the US FOMC meeting held in June are scheduled for release today.
The minutes of Kevin Warsh's first meeting should show stronger support for interest rate hikes.

ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta yesterday cautioned that the Eurozone's economic outlook remains fragile.
He said that monetary policy decisions should be assessed against a range of scenarios amid profound changes in the global economy.
He described the current environment as a “Great Reconfiguration”.
Policymakers are now weighing up whether a further interest rate increase will be needed to contain inflation pressures.
The minutes of the ECB's June policy meeting, due for release tomorrow, may offer further insight into the Governing Council's thinking.

The NY Fed inflation expectations rose further in June, with the one-year outlook increasing to 3.7%, from 3.5% in May, its highest level since 2023.
The three-year inflation expectation also edged higher, to 3.3%, its highest reading since 2022, from 3.1% in May.
The survey also pointed to improving labour market sentiment, with respondents expecting stronger wage growth and reporting a lower perceived risk of losing their job over the next 12 months.

NY Fed President John Williams noted yesterday the Fed's current monetary policy stance as well positioned to achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
He commented that policymakers should continue to assess incoming data before deciding on any future policy adjustments.
Williams noted that, while inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, he has become somewhat more optimistic about the near-term inflation outlook due to the recent decline in oil and energy prices.
He expects energy prices to help lower headline inflation in the coming months.

Oil prices rose yesterday after a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile.
The vessel is believed to have sustained structural damage.
Ships passing through the strategic waterway were advised to exercise heightened caution.
Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 26.0% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and down by 4.5% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $76.67/bbl; ($74.16/bbl*).
Gold is at $4125/oz ($4106/oz*).
SA CDS 121bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 221bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.55%*, German bund at 2.99%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.36%*, SA's R2035 at 8.21%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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