In the loop 03 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.04/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.05/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.2%), KRW (+1.0%) and ZAR (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.6%), TWD (-0.3%) and PHP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Iran war: President Trump has said that the latest US military action against Iran was expected to be "short-lived", while again asserting that Washington controls the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
US forces launched their second wave of strikes in three days, hitting radar installations and capabilities used by Iran to deploy naval mines along its southern coastline. Iran responded by firing drones and missiles at US bases.

The UK composite PMI for August (final estimate) is today expected to have remained unchanged at 52.5 in August as uncertainty about the Middle East war subsided somewhat during the month, from 52.2 in July.
The services PMI is also likely to have remained unchanged (from its previous estimate) in August, at 52.8, from 52.1 in July.
In the Eurozone, the July composite PMI (final estimate) is also due today and is expected to have remained unchanged from its previous estimate of 52.1 in August, slightly up from 52.0 in July.
The services PMI is anticipated to come in at 51.7 in August, matching the previous estimate and July's outcome.
The region's PPI is expected to come in at 5.5% y/y in July, after having increased by 4.6% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, PPI is anticipated to have increased by 1.3% in July, following a 0.3% decline in June.

The US Fed's Beige book, released last night, highlighted that US economic activity expanded modestly over the past two months, supported particularly by strong demand related to data centres and defence.
It was noted that manufacturing activity increased across most Fed districts.
The Beige book highlighted that employment edged higher, with labour demand strongest in manufacturing, construction and some services but weaker in retail and hospitality.
The economic outlook remained broadly positive, although sentiment varied across sectors amid uncertainty over energy prices and geopolitical developments.
Consumer spending on high-end goods remained solid.
However, households are increasingly price-sensitive, limiting some firms' ability to pass higher input costs on to customers. Meanwhile, price pressures strengthened, with prices rising moderately across most districts.

The US composite PMI for August (final estimate) is expected to have increased to 56.1 in August, up from 54.5 in July.
The US ISM services PMI for August is due out today and is likely to have remained steady, at 54.1.
The trade balance, also due out today, is expected to see the deficit widening to $90.2bn in July, from a deficit of $73.3bn in June.

Locally, the industry-wide PMI for August is due out today; the index is currently in expansion, at 50.3.
Electricity production and consumption for July are scheduled for release today.

Brent crude oil is currently at $94.78/bbl; ($95.63/bbl*).
Gold is at $4426/oz ($4381/oz*).
SA CDS 116bps*, Brazil 118bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.77%*, German bund at 3.37%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.84%*, SA's R2035 at 8.63%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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