In the loop 13 May 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.48/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.56/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+0.6%) and CLP (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-1.4%), HUF (-0.9%) and PLN (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: President Trump yesterday commented that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon outweighed any economic pain faced by Americans as a result of the war.
He argued that financial considerations did not influence his approach to negotiations with Tehran.
He dismissed concerns about rising fuel prices, inflation and broader economic strain as secondary to national and global security.

Central bank watch: the minutes of the Riksbank policy meeting of 6-7 May are due for release later today.
The Riksbank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 1.5%, and signalled its readiness to act.
Policymakers signalled a continued wait-and-see approach amid heightened global uncertainty.
The central bank noted that inflation remains low, making Sweden an outlier relative to many advanced economies.

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel reiterated yesterday that the ECB remains data-dependent but must be ready to act decisively if risks to price stability intensify, particularly from the Iran war.
Nagel noted that policymakers had already discussed a rate hike at the April meeting.
They are now closely assessing how large and persistent the impact of the Middle East conflict will be on inflation and growth.
He stressed that, while the ECB will continue to analyse incoming data ahead of its June decision, the central bank's mandate requires it to respond if inflation expectations show signs of becoming unanchored.
Nagel added that the baseline scenario currently includes two rate hikes.
He noted that further policy tightening would be justified if energy-driven price pressures threaten to derail the return of inflation to the bank's target.
Several policymakers are due to speak on the region's economy and monetary policy later today.

Eurozone GDP data for Q1:26, due out today, may show that the economy increased only slightly at the beginning of this year.
Growth is expected to have increased by 0.1% q/q in Q1:26, following a 0.1% q/q expansion in Q4:25.
Industrial production, also due out, is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in March, after increasing by 0.4% m/m in February.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee commented yesterday that the inflation side of the Fed's dual mandate was “moving in the wrong direction”.
He expressed concern that price pressures were no longer confined to energy or tariff-related categories.
He pointed to the latest US inflation data, which showed an unexpected increase in services inflation, describing the development as particularly concerning.
He added that it may indicate broader underlying price pressures and signs of economic overheating.
Goolsbee stressed that the Fed needs to see services inflation stabilise and eventually ease before policymakers can gain greater confidence in lowering interest rates.
While he noted that the labour market remains broadly stable, he warned that persistent inflation continues to complicate the Fed's task of balancing support for employment with the need to restore price stability.

US PPI for April is scheduled for release today and is expected to come in at 4.8% y/y, after having increased by 4.0% y/y in March.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.5% in April, matching March's increase.

Brent crude oil is currently at $106.35/bbl; ($107.77/bbl*).
Gold is at $46981/oz ($4715/oz*).
SA CDS 149bps**, Brazil 120bps* and Turkey 233bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.46%*, German bund at 3.10%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.92%*, SA's R2035 at 8.76%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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