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In the loop 04 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.03/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.11/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the HUF (+1.9%), PLN (+1.5%) and RON (+1.5%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.6%), TWD (-0.5%) and MYR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central Bank watch: the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday.
  • The RBI has cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 bps this year.
  • The BOE will meet on Thursday to decide on rates and is largely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps.
  • The central bank is likely to remain cautious in signalling further rate cuts.
 
  • China’s July trade data out this week will likely show the resilience of its export sector as it navigates tariff headwinds and global demand cooling.
  • Exports are expected to have remained solid in July. 
  • GDP reports from Indonesia and the Philippines will provide insight into how these economies fared in Q2:25.
 
  • The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for August is due out today; the index is expected to have improved.
  • German industrial activity for June, out on Thursday, is expected to have fallen, following a surprise increase in May. 
  • The industry outlook for the coming months to expected to remain gloomy.
 
  • The US trade balance, due out tomorrow, will likely see the deficit narrowing in June as imports fell amid a large pullback in consumer goods.
  • The ISM services index for July is also on the cards tomorrow; services activity is expected to have expanded at a marginally faster pace in July. 
  • Consumers are pulling back on spending on goods as tariff price increases take effect.
  • Non-farm productivity, scheduled for Thursday, likely increased by 2.1% in Q2:25, modestly slower than GDP growth.
 
  • Locally, the industry-wide PMI for July is due out tomorrow; the index is currently around the 50-benchmark, at 50.1.
  • The SARB’s gross and net reserves for July are scheduled for release on Thursday. 
  • Gross reserves came in at $68.42bn in June, while net reserves came in at $65.22bn in June. 
  • Electricity production and consumption for June are scheduled for release on Thursday.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 7.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 28.1% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $69.45/bbl; ($69.67/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3360/oz ($3363/oz*).
  • SA CDS 191bps*, Brazil 152bps* and Turkey 286bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.21%*, German bund at 2.67%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.67%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.59%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 10h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index (August)
  • 16h00: US factory orders (June), durable goods orders (June – final)
 

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