In the loop 28 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.86/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.96/$*).
The dollar yesterday posted its steepest single-day decline since last year's tariff rollout, after President Trump said that he did not believe that the currency had weakened excessively.
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.9%), COP (+1.3%) and HUF (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.3%), PHP (-0.2%) and TRY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the US Fed is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged today.
Attention will centre on how long this pause might last and whether policymakers are aligned behind Chair Jerome Powell.
The meeting is likely to be overshadowed by controversy surrounding Powell, who is under a criminal investigation related to a renovation project at Fed facilities.
Powell has publicly defended the central bank's independence, contending that the legal action represents an attempt to exert undue influence over monetary policy decisions.
The Bank of Canada is also expected to leave its overnight rate target unchanged, at 2.25%, today.
Sri Lanka held rates steady today after a prolonged easing cycle.

US consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, fell sharply in January to its lowest level in more than a decade.
The headline index declined to 84.5 in January, from 94.2 in December.
The decline reflected increasingly pessimistic views on the economic outlook and labour market conditions.
Expectations for the next six months dropped to 65.1, the weakest reading since April, down from 74.6 previously.
The present conditions index slid to 113.7 in January, its lowest level in nearly five years, from 123.6 in December.
The Conference Board noted that fewer Americans now expect their incomes to rise, prompting households to scale back vacation plans and approach major purchases with greater caution.

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said yesterday that the central bank has little reason to adjust borrowing costs in the near term.
He argued that the benchmark interest rate is appropriately set to ensure price stability over the medium term.
Nagel added that, given ongoing uncertainty and potential geopolitical risks, the ECB must keep an open mind and retain full optionality on future rate decisions.
His comments echoed recent remarks from Chief Economist Philip Lane.
Fellow Governing Council member Martin Kocher struck a similar tone, noting that, from today's perspective, key interest rates are indeed at levels consistent with medium-term price stability.
He stressed the importance of remaining able to act, should geopolitical challenges arise.

Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
SA government and business leaders yesterday said that they are renewing their partnership in an effort to revive an economy that has underperformed for more than a decade.
President Cyril Ramaphosa acknowledged that, while the country has “achieved much, there is much that we still need to do”.
He highlighted recent progress, including SA's removal from the Financial Action Task Force's grey list, a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings, and the formal adoption of a 3% inflation target.
All these steps that have helped fuel a rally in the rand and local bond markets.
Ramaphosa added that Phase 3 of the compact launched in 2023 will focus on boosting youth employment, tackling crime and corruption, and accelerating reforms in energy and logistics to lift growth and confidence.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.91/bbl; ($67.57/bbl*).
Gold is at $5259/oz ($5180/oz*).
SA CDS 134bps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 214bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.23%*, German bund at 2.87%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.24%*, SA's R2035 at 8.10%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF