In the loop 15 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.56/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.62/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.4%), TWD (+0.2%) and KRW (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.7%), CZK (-0.7%) and PLN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: Iran expanded its naval surveillance across Hormuz and surrounding waters as attacks on commercial vessels intensified and oil flows through the Strait declined.
Two vessels subsequently sank near the Strait, one reportedly after being struck by a projectile and another after hitting a sea mine.
Regional tensions also widened as Iran-backed Houthi forces stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The UK monthly GDP for August is scheduled for release today and is likely to have decreased by 0.1% m/m, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in July.
The trade balance for August is also due out today; the trade deficit is expected to have widened.
Manufacturing production is expected to have flatlined in August, after having increased by 0.9% m/m in July.

The US Fed's Beige Book indicated that economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace across most Fed districts in recent weeks, while price pressures intensified in some regions.
Manufacturing emerged as a relative bright spot, with broad-based expansion underpinning moderate economic growth in the Dallas district.
A further six districts reported modest to moderate manufacturing growth, while the remaining five recorded little or no expansion.
Growth in other sectors remained subdued.
Consumer-facing businesses reported increasing pressure on profit margins as price-sensitive consumers resisted further price increases, limiting firms' ability to pass higher input costs on to customers.
The report comes ahead of the Fed's October policy meeting, with some policymakers having signalled support for keeping interest rates unchanged.
However, yesterday's firm CPI report could complicate the policy outlook.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman yesterday noted that the Fed can afford to be patient before considering further interest rate increases, despite inflation remaining above its 2% target.
Bowman said there was no urgency to tighten monetary policy further after September's 25 bps rate hike.
She emphasised the need to assess how economic conditions and financial markets evolve before deciding on additional policy action.
Her comments reinforced a cautious, data-dependent approach to monetary policy.
It suggests that the Fed has room to pause and evaluate the impact of its latest rate increase before considering further tightening.

The US advance retail sales, due today, likely increased 0.3% m/m in September, after increasing by 1.2% m/m in August, reflecting higher gasoline prices weighing on consumer demand through the month.
The PPI outcome for September is expected to come in at 5.4% y/y, matching that of August.
The Empire State manufacturing index for October, also scheduled for release today, is likely to have improved to 12.0, from 7.6 in September.

Brent crude oil is currently at $104.33/bbl; ($106.06/bbl*).
Gold is at $4140/oz ($4105/oz*).
SA CDS 131bps*, Brazil 112bps* and Turkey 246bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.18%*, German bund at 3.46%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.94%*, SA's R2035 at 8.73%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

08h00: UK monthly GDP (August), industrial production (August), manufacturing production (August), trade balance (August)
11h00: Eurozone industrial production (August)
14h30: US advance retail sales (September), Empire manufacturing index (October), initial jobless claims (10 October), PPI (September)
16h00: US business inventories (August)

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