In the loop 11 November 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.50/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.56/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PHP (+0.6%), THB (+0.4%) and IDR (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.4%), BRL (-1.2%) and HUF (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: the Iran conflict showed tentative signs of de-escalation, with President Trump saying that further US strikes were unlikely following discussions with Qatari mediators aimed at advancing US-Iran negotiations.
However, Tehran denied reports of substantive new talks and maintained its key demands on sanctions, the US blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz.

BOE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli yesterday noted that another interest rate increase might be needed in the near term, unless there is clearer evidence of inflation pressures weakening.
She warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, with the BOE now expecting inflation to peak at 4.9% in Q2:27.
This comes as the energy shock has proved larger and more persistent than anticipated, though economic activity has been more resilient, and underlying disinflation appears to have stalled.
However, Lombardelli favours a gradual approach to further tightening, stressing future decisions as depending on energy prices, underlying price pressures, economic activity, and labour market slack.
She did not rule out a December rate hike but said that there was not yet enough information to make a decision.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane signalled that another interest rate hike would be warranted at the central bank's December meeting if incoming economic data remained broadly unchanged.
Lane warned that inflation might exceed 4% by year-end, with food and core inflation expected to accelerate, particularly in Q1:27.
He cautioned that inflation has yet to peak and said a further rate increase would be prudent if the economic outlook remained unchanged.
His comments reinforce expectations that the ECB may raise borrowing costs for a third time this year at its final policy meeting in December.
The central bank has already hiked rates twice because of the surge in energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran war.

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks yesterday indicated that decisions on further interest rate increases are becoming increasingly nuanced as policymakers balance inflation risks against weaker growth.
Kazaks said that additional monetary tightening may still be necessary if elevated energy prices persist and begin to feed more broadly into inflation.
However, he stressed that the trade-offs facing policymakers are becoming more complex.
His remarks imply that, while the ECB retains a tightening bias, future rate decisions may increasingly depend on the persistence and breadth of inflation pressures as well as their implications for economic activity.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern over persistently elevated inflation, describing the October consumer price inflation report as “borderline disturbing”.
He emphasised the need for policymakers to address ongoing price pressures.
Goolsbee said he had expected inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs and elevated energy prices to have eased by now.
However, inflation has remained stubbornly high, with persistent services inflation emerging as a particular concern.
Goolsbee described the lack of progress in bringing inflation down as troubling, reinforcing the need for continued vigilance in monetary policy.

Brent crude oil is currently at $92.31/bbl; ($91.49/bbl*).
Gold is at $4057/oz ($4032/oz*).
SA CDS 120bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 235bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.99%*, German bund at 3.31%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.53%*, SA's R2035 at 8.34%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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