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In the loop 12 October 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning at R15.07/$ after closing weaker yesterday (R15.02/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PEN (+0.5%), PLN (+0.3%) and HUF (+0.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.6%), BRL (-0.6%) and MXN (-0.5%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 239.03 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.87 million; recoveries are at 216.29 million.
  • The US has 45.31 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 734,611. 
  • India has 33.98 million cases and 450,991 deaths; Brazil has 21.58 million cases and 601,266 deaths.
  • The IMF publishes the World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report later today.
  • The IMF currently expects world GDP to rebound to 6% this year.
  • The UK ILO unemployment rate is on the cards today; the unemployment rate is expected to have slipped to 4.5% in the 3 months to August from 4.6% in the 3 months to July.
  • The Eurozone and German ZEW survey expectations are due for release today.
  • The German ZEW survey expectations component has dropped for 4 consecutive months while the assessment of the current situation is improving at a slower pace.
  • Ongoing bottlenecks in global supply chains are holding back manufacturers while rising inflationary pressures and household incomes, hit by the pandemic, are pressuring the index.
  • SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.912 million; 201 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 32,206; KwaZulu Natal leads the way with 15,366 active cases followed by the Northern Cape with 4,406.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 29 yesterday, to 88,346; 2.791 million people (or 95.9%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 17.988 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 6,168 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The positivity rate is 3,3%.
  • 19.242 million vaccines have been administered to date; 189,528 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • Stats SA’s mining production data for August is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y from a 10.3% y/y increase in July.
  • Manufacturing production for August is expected to have increased by 0.2% y/y after having contracted by 4.1% y/y in July.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 61.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 7.3% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $83.88/bbl; ($83.65/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1761/oz ($1756/oz*).
  • SA CDS 218bps*, higher than Brazil 204bps* and lower than Turkey 443bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.61%*, German bund at -0.121%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.99%*, SA’s R186 at 7.95%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: UK ILO unemployment rate (August)
  • 11h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (October)
  • 11h30: SA mining production (August)
  • 13h00: SA manufacturing production (August)
  • 16h00: US JOLTS job openings (August)

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