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In the loop 11 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is steady this morning, at R16.18/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.19/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.3%), COP (+0.4%) and MYR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.5%), ZAR (-1.0%) and KRW (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: the broader international community has become increasingly involved in efforts to contain the fallout from the war.
  • The Iran conflict remained a key topic ahead of the BRICS Summit, reflecting concerns about its impact on trade, energy markets, and global stability.
  • With negotiations stalled and fighting continuing, the outlook points to a prolonged conflict, keeping oil markets on edge and raising risks to global growth and inflation.
 
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday noted that the unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 bps, to 2.50%, was driven by persistent inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran conflict.
  • Lagarde described the rate increase as a “no-brainer”.
  • She warned that inflation was likely to prove more persistent than previously anticipated, remaining well above the ECB's 2% target for an extended period, before returning towards target around the end of 2027. 
  • She also highlighted the surprising resilience of the Eurozone economy, with growth broad-based across countries and sectors despite the energy shock, supporting upward revisions to the ECB's growth forecasts.
  • Lagarde nevertheless stressed the outlook as remaining highly uncertain, with the risks tilted to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth.
 
  • The UK monthly GDP, due out today, is likely to have flatlined in July, after having increased by 0.3% m/m in June. 
  • The trade balance July is also due out today; the trade deficit is expected to have compressed in July.
  • Industrial production, also due out today, is expected to have decreased by 0.2% y/y in July, matching June's decline. 
 
  • US existing home sales remained subdued in August, highlighting the continued strain that elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges are placing on the US housing market.
  • Sales came in at an annualised pace of around 4.0 million in August, little changed from recent months and remaining well below the levels typically associated with a robust housing market.
  • Housing activity continues to be constrained by a shortage of homes available for sale.
  • Many homeowners remain reluctant to move and give up existing low-rate mortgages, while high borrowing costs continue to weigh on demand.
 
  • Investors are now turning their attention to the US August CPI report today, which will be the final key inflation reading ahead of the Fed's policy meeting on 15-16 September.
  • Headline inflation is expected to remain broadly unchanged at around 3.4% y/y.
  • M/m price growth is likely to accelerate, driven largely by higher fuel costs following the recent surge in global oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
  • Despite the anticipated rise in headline inflation, underlying price pressures are expected to remain contained, with core CPI forecast to increase by around 0.2% m/m.
  • Core CPI is expected slightly lower at 2.4% y/y in August, extending the gradual disinflation trend observed in recent months.
  • Higher gasoline prices are expected to account for most of the increase in headline inflation.
  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September likely slipped to 51.0, from 51.7 in August.
 
  • Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 75.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 0.4% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $107.00/bbl; ($107.63/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4337/oz ($4398/oz*).
  • SA CDS 116bps*, Brazil 114bps* and Turkey 222bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.96%*, German bund at 3.50%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.90%*, SA's R2035 at 8.69%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK monthly GDP (July), industrial production (July), manufacturing production (July), trade balance (July)
  • 14h30: US CPI (August)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (September)
  • 20h00: US Federal budget balance (August)
 

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