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The SA Daily 13 February 2019

Employment trends sideways

Shireen Darmalingam

  • The Q4:18 Quarterly Labour Force Survey notes the unemployment rate sliding somewhat to 27.1%, from 27.5% in Q3. The number of employed rose to 16.529 million in Q4:18, from 16.380 million in Q3. Both mining and manufacturing saw employment rise in Q4; these two sectors contribute a notable 19% to GDP.
  • Manufacturing sector employment rose by 48,000 in Q4:18, after losing 25,000 jobs in Q3. Output growth moderated significantly, to 0.1% y/y in December, from 1.3% y/y in November. Manufacturing growth moderated in Q4:18, to 1.2% q/q (sa), from 1.8% q/q (sa) in Q3. We expect modest growth in the manufacturing sector in the near term.
  • The mining sector created 31,000 jobs in Q4:18, after 29,000 jobs lost in Q3. Mining production for December is due out tomorrow and is expected to have eased.
  • The short- to medium-term outlook for the mining sector still seems bleak. Commodity prices remain constrained, and we expect the SA terms of trade to trend sideways in 2019, which won’t bode well for jobs growth this year. However, the relatively pragmatic new Mining Charter should boost output and jobs longer term.
  • The retail trade sector added jobs in both Q3:18 and Q4:18. The December retail sales data is due out today.

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