Coronavirus COVID-19 update

The sharp rise in reported cases by 14,840 in just Hubei Province is not a sudden spike in the rate of infections; rather, it is the result of changing the threshold for diagnosis and also of converting previously suspected cases into confirmed cases.

Since the Chinese government declared a public health emergency on 20 January 2020, the reported cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV or COVID-19) have risen dramatically, from just 291 to 60,000. Some 83% of these are in Hubei Province. Many of these patients were probably already infected in late January and early February, but the health system has struggled to keep up. The healthcare systems and infrastructure in Hubei Province were unprepared, and hospitals are now inundated and working around the clock.

Indeed, some places are still playing catch-up, dealing with thousands of potential patients and inadequate testing equipment. Just last night, the authorities decided to allow doctors confirm cases before receiving confirmation from nucleic acid testing – the method still the most effective for screening this virus.

The net result is that the total number of infected people in Hubei jumped by 14,840 overnight (12 February). Importantly, 13,332 are clinically diagnosed cases – basically people who were previously captured in suspected cases but had not been confirmed by nucleic tests. Thus, on a like-for-like basis, the number of new reported cases in Hubei Province has continued a downward trend. Conversely, the number of suspected cases is expected to have fallen to less than 5,745 cases, down from a peak of 28,842 on 8 February.

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