In the loop 11 May 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.45/$, after closing unchanged on Friday (R16.37/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RON (+1.1%), HUF (+0.9%) and BRL (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.4%), PHP (-0.4%) and MYR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Iran war: Iran formally responded to a US peace proposal yesterday, prioritising an end to regional hostilities and securing access through the Strait of Hormuz.
While rejecting demands to fully dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, Tehran proposed measures, such as transferring, or diluting part of, its enriched uranium stockpile.
President Trump dismissed the response as unacceptable and warned of renewed military action.
Washington continued to push for lasting nuclear restrictions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.

Central bank watch: the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's inflation report is scheduled for release on Thursday.
The central bank is expected to raise its inflation outlook.
Its February forecast put year-end inflation in a 15-21% range, and its interim target stood at a 16%.

The Eurozone ZEW survey expectations for May is on the cards tomorrow; the index deteriorated to -20.4 in April.
The Eurozone GDP data for Q1:26, due out on Wednesday, may show that the economy increased only slightly at the beginning of this year.
Growth is expected to have increased by 0.1% q/q in Q1:26, following a 0.1% q/q expansion in Q4:25.
Industrial production, also due out on Wednesday, is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in March, after increasing by 0.4% m/m in February.
The ECB will publish its economic bulletin on Friday.
The UK's RICS house balance for April is on the cards on Thursday.
The UK GDP data for the Q1:26 is due for release on Thursday; the economy is likely to have expanded by 0.6% y/y in Q1:26, after having increased by 0.1% q/q in Q4:25.

The US April CPI report will be a key focus on Wednesday.
Headline inflation is expected to have increased to 3.7% y/y in April, from 3.3% y/y in March.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.6% in as April, following a rise of 0.9% in March.
Existing home sales for April, due on out later today, are expected to have increased by 2.0% m/m, following a 3.6% m/m decline in March.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for April, scheduled for release tomorrow, likely increased to 96.1 in April, from 95.8 in March.
Retail sales for April are due on Thursday; sales are likely to have increased by 0.5% m/m in April, following an increase of 1.7% m/m in March.
The Empire State manufacturing index for May, due on Friday, is likely to have fallen to 7.5, from 11.0 in April.

Locally, manufacturing production for March is due out tomorrow; production likely increased by 0.3% y/y in March, following a 2.8% y/y decline in February.
Manufacturing output is likely to have increased by 0.7% m/m in March, after declining by 2.2% m/m in February.
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q1:26 is also scheduled for release tomorrow: the unemployment rate fell to 31.4% in Q4:25.
Mining production for March is due out on Thursday; production is likely to have increased by 6.1% y/y, from 9.7% y/y in February.
Mining production increased by 2.3% m/m in February.

Brent crude oil is currently at $105.65/bbl; ($101.29/bbl*).
Gold is at $4673/oz ($4715/oz*).
SA CDS 146bps*, Brazil 117bps* and Turkey 228bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.35%*, German bund at 3.00%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.77%*, SA's R2035 at 8.61%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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