In the loop 02 October 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.21/$ this morning, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.22/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.1%), IDR (+0.3%), CLP (+0.3%) and ZAR (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-3.1%) and PEN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

US government shutdown tracker: today is day two of the federal government shutdown.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the shutdown provides an opening to “do some things that we would not otherwise be able to do, because we would never get Democrat votes for them”.
The Trump administration yesterday halted $18bn in federal funding for infrastructure projects in New York City and threatened to cut $8bn from renewable energy projects in more than a dozen states.
Moderate Republicans and Democrats are reportedly trying to search for a way out of the shutdown that could offer face-saving concessions to both parties.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49.1 in September from 48.7 in August, remaining in contraction.
The prices paid sub-indicator dipped to 61.9 in September, from 63.7 in August.
New orders disappointed, with the index sliding into contraction at 48.9 in September, after 51.4 in August.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently remarked that the most recent round of tariffs may be causing businesses to again pause decision-making.
“When I’m out talking to people, it feels like they’re just wary, they’re uncertain and we might be going back into that, everybody-just-put-your-pencils-down kind of a moment” he said.
In another interview, Goolsbee berated the fact that the government shutdown will impact official data releases, making it harder for policymakers to monitor the economy.
The Fed is “going into a period where you’re trying to figure out: Is this a transition?”, Goolsbee said; “And if you’re not going to get the data, it’s just that much harder”, he warned.
The monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payrolls data for September is unlikely to be published (it is due tomorrow).
The BLS report on consumer prices, due out on 15 October, hangs in the balance; the next Fed meeting is on 28-29 October.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook may remain at her post until justices rule after hearing arguments in the case in January, the US Supreme Court ruled yesterday.
This ruling eases the pressure on the central bank after months of criticism from the Trump administration threatened its independence.

The G7 is nearing a deal to increase sanctions on Russia over its continued war in Ukraine, according to a joint statement by their finance ministers.
The group is working on a range of options, including new measures on key economic sectors such as energy, finance and the military industry.
“We agreed that now is the time to maximize pressure on Russia’s oil exports, a major source of their revenue”, the statement said.

Locally, Naamsa vehicle sales for September will be released today.
New vehicle sales increased by 18.7% y/y in August, after increasing by 15.6% y/y in July.
Stats SA will release electricity production and consumption data for August.
July saw a drop of 2.3% y/y in electricity production; consumption was down by 4.5% y/y in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.74/bbl; ($65.35/bbl*).
Gold is at $3870/oz ($3866/oz*).
SA CDS 167bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 256bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.10%*, German bund at 2.71%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.27%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.15%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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