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In the loop 14 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.54/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.51/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the IDR (+0.6%), PHP (+0.6%) and MYR (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the PEN (-0.4%), MXN (-0.3%) and COP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Sentiment across the UK property market remains constrained.
  • The UK’s Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance came in at -13% in July, from -7% in June.   
  • Ongoing uncertainty around global trade policies will continue to weigh on sentiment.
  • The UK GDP for Q2:25 is expected to come in at 0.1% q/q, from 0.7% q/q in Q1:25.
  • Economic data for April and May, already published, showed a decline in output in both months.
  • Monthly GDP for June is likely to have increased by 0.2%, after having declined by 0.1% m/m in May.
  • Industrial and manufacturing data for June will also be released today; output is expected to have improved m/m.
 
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee yesterday remarked that economists are in agreement that the central bank should be independent from political interference.
  • He warned Fed policymakers against “lurching” towards further cuts before inflation is fully under control.
  • He added that the labour market remained stronger than it appeared in the recent labour market data for July.
  • Goolsbee remarked that he did not want to tie his hands “prematurely” and commit to keeping borrowing costs on hold.
  • He suggested, however, that the Fed should remain vigilant.
 
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the Fed to cut rates by 150-175 bps.
  • He stated that policymakers might have cut rates, had they been aware of the revised labour data; the data came out after the FOMC meeting.
  • He called for policymakers to cut the Fed funds rate by 50 bps at the September policy meeting.
  • Bessent also remarked that there are 10 or 11 candidates under consideration to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026, including current Fed policymakers.
  • President Trump later noted that he might name the next Fed chair “a little bit early”; he added that he has short-listed three or four potential candidates.
  • His decision could come within the next month.
  • President Trump has criticised the Fed chair incessantly for not cutting interest rates.
 
  • Locally, it is a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 11.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 28.1% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $65.90/bbl; ($65.63/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3358/oz ($3355/oz*).
  • SA CDS 172bps*, Brazil 133bps* and Turkey 267bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.23%*, German bund at 2.68%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.69%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.59%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: UK GDP (Q2:25), monthly GDP (June), industrial production (June), manufacturing production (June), visible trade balance (June)
  • 11h00: Eurozone GDP (Q2:25), industrial production (June), employment (Q2:25)
  • 14h30: US PPI (July), initial jobless claims (9 August)
 

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