Data disappoints

Hot on the heels of the trade war running wild, China has reported April’s monthly macroeconomic data, delivering a sobering reminder to those that had believed March to be the beginning of economic stabilization and recovery.

The March data outperformance was most likely the high-water mark for the economy in 2019. The genuine trends are now reasserting themselves. Our China Activity Index slipped back down, from 6.75% y/y in March, to 6.02% y/y in April, with the 6-month moving average sliding from 6.4% to 6.2%; this is the lowest level since 2016. Clearly, the China economy remains vulnerable.