Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Closing the loop 24 May 2022

Closing the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

Market highlights:

  • The rand is stronger at R15.66/$ (R15.74/$*) today; it ranged between R15.62/$ and R15.85/$.
  • The currency is above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages (R15.28/$, R15.29/$ and R15.25/$).
  • EM currencies are mixed today; the RUB (+2.9%), PLN (+0.8%) and CZK (+0.8%) are the biggest gainers; the TRY (-1.4%), CLP (-0.3%) and KRW (-0.2%) are the biggest losers.
  • The UK manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.6 pts in May from 55.8 pts in April.
  • The composite index fell to 51.8 pts in May from 58.99 pts in April.
  • The services PMI also fell more than expected in May 51.8 pts from 58.2 pts in April.  
  • The economy continues to face several obstacles which could weigh on economic growth ranging from the lockdowns in China to soaring energy and food prices.
  • The Russia-Ukraine war as well as a drive by global central banks to tighten policy in order inflation are amongst key risks to the UK’s growth.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI slipped to 54.9 pts in May, from 55.8 pts in April.  
  • Both the manufacturing and services PMI fell in May.
  • The US FOMC May meeting minutes are due tomorrow. 
  • The minutes will likely provide further clarity on the committee members’ sentiment regarding the rates outlook.
  • Several policymakers have expressed their support for a steady path to achieving a neutral rate.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell has become increasingly more hawkish since the 4 May meeting on the back of the higher-than-expected April CPI print.
  • Powell has, however, ruled out the possibility of a 75 bps increase at the June meeting.
  • Investors will also be keeping an eye on the bank’s growth and inflation outlooks.
  • Locally, the SARB’s leading economic indicator increased to 128 pts in March from 127.2 pts in February.
  • The largest positive contributors were an increase in the USD-denominated export commodity price index and the acceleration in the 6m smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.
  • The largest detractors were a deceleration in the 6m growth rate of the job advertisement space and a narrowing in the interest rate spread.
  • The coincident indicator, which measures current economic conditions, remained unchanged at 95.9 pts in February.
  • The lagging indicator increased to 93.7 pts in February from 92.8 pts in January. 
  • Stage 2 loadshedding will be implemented from 17h00 until 22h00 due to capacity constraints.
  • The oil price is up by 0.2% today, and up by 46.1% in the year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up by 0.8% today, and up by 1.9% in the year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is at $113.67/bbl ($113.42/bbl*).
  • Gold price is at $1864/oz ($1850/oz*). 
  • SA CDS is at 267bps (265bps*), Brazil 243bps (243bps*), Turkey 728bps (705bps*).
  • Yields: US 10yr at 2.76% (2.85%*), German bund at 0.983% (1.017%*) and SA 10-year generic at 10.14% (10.17%*), SA’s R186 is at 8.23% (8.17%*).
  • The JSE ALSI is down by 1.1% today (+1.2%*).

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 07h00: Japan leading and coincident indices (March final)
  • 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (20 May)
  • 14h30: US durable goods orders (April)
  • 20h00: US FOMC meeting minutes (4 May)

Read PDF