In the loop 02 December 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.10/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.07/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+0.6%), HUF (+0.4%) and PLN (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.6%), BRL (-0.4%) and PEN (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

BOE policymaker Megan Greene commented yesterday that the UK labour market would need to weaken further before she could support another interest rate cut.
She noted signs of “stabilisation” in employment and vacancies data.
She added that a failure of the expected recovery in consumer spending to materialise could also influence her stance on borrowing costs.
Greene opposed the BOE’s most recent rate cut in August, and she is expected to remain among the more hawkish members of the committee.

Separately, fellow BOE policymaker Swati Dhingra warned about the impact of Brexit on services trade.
Dhingra noted that Britain’s share of global services exports has declined since leaving the EU.

Eurozone inflation likely held steady in November, at 2.1% y/y, just above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have fallen by 0.3% in November, after having increased by 0.2% in October.
In the UK, annual house price growth is expected to have eased to 1.3% y/y in November, down from 2.4% y/y in October.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted in November at the fastest pace in four months as new orders weakened, highlighting the sector’s ongoing struggle to break out of a prolonged slump.
The index fell to 48.2 in November, from 48.7 in October, marking a ninth consecutive month below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
Manufacturers continue to face headwinds from trade policy uncertainty and elevated production costs.
The ISM prices paid sub-index rose for the first time in five months.
Demand remains soft, with new orders shrinking in November at the quickest pace since July.
Backlogs declined by the most in seven months.

The Fed is currently in an external communications blackout ahead of its FOMC meeting scheduled for next week.

Locally, GDP growth for Q3:25 is in the spotlight today and is expected to have increased by 0.5% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.8% q/q (sa) in Q2:25.
Notwithstanding the lowering of our and the consensus forecasts for 2025 since the beginning of this year, we maintain that trend growth should improve over the medium term.
We’re closely monitoring the recent green shoots, including the tentative recovery in machinery imports, surge in electricity generation projects registered at NERSA, and double-digit growth in corporate loans and advances.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.20/bbl; ($63.17/bbl*).
Gold is at $4219/oz ($4232/oz*).
SA CDS 144bps*, Brazil 142bps* and Turkey 234bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.08%*, German bund at 2.75%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.60%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.48%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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