In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.81/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.97/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.8%), CLP (+1.6%) and HUF (+1.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-4.7%), BRL (-0.3%) and INR (-0.1%) were amongst the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• The WHO has reiterated that blanket travel bans won’t prevent the spread of the Omicron variant, now being detected in at least 20 countries.
• Several countries have nevertheless tightened travel restrictions to curb Omicron.
• The first cases of Omicron have been detected in Latin America, too.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday that tapering may end sooner as inflation is proving persistent.
• He also noted that policymakers should stop describing price pressures as transitory. 
• He warned that the Omicron variant posed a risk to his outlook, implying that the Fed may start hiking rates sooner.
• Following Powell’s comments, the money market estimated a 50/50 chance that the Fed would hike rates as early as May next year.

• China's manufacturing activity contracted in November below the 50 pt benchmark. 
• The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 pts, from 50.6 pts in October.
• The data comes a day after the official manufacturing PMI improved in November.
• The divergence appeared to be mainly caused by different trends in demand gauges. 
• The output and price indices were consistent with the official survey.
• Several countries’ PMI data are due out today.

• The US November ADP employment report is due out today; in the spotlight will be the health of the US private sector’s labour conditions.
• Private payrolls are expected to have increased by 525k in November, from 571k in October.
• The Fed’s Beige Book will likely show that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. 

• The SA BER’s manufacturing PMI and Naamsa’s vehicle sales data releases are due out today.

• Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 37.3% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and down by 6.3% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $71.10/bbl; ($70.57/bbl*).
• Gold is at $1780/oz ($1774/oz*).
• SA CDS 244bps*, lower than Brazil 258bps* and Turkey 507bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 1.44%*, German bund at -0.349%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.16%*, SA’s R186 at 8.03%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 11h00: SA BER manufacturing PMI (November)
• 11h00: Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI (November)
• 11h30: UK Markit manufacturing PMI (November)
• 12h00: Eurozone OECD publishes economic outlook
• 14h00: US MBA mortgage applications (26 November)
• 15h15: US ADP employment change (November)
• 16h45: US Markit manufacturing PMI (November)
• 21h00: US Fed releases Beige Book
• SA Naamsa vehicle sales (November)

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