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The SA Daily 26 September 2018

Credit preview

  • Private sector credit extension (PSCE) data for August is due out on Friday, and we foresee some marginal slowing to 5.3% y/y, from 5.4% y/y in July. However, the volatile general loans and advances of the corporate sector poses some upside risk to our forecast.
  • We will closely contemplate the household sector’s credit growth. As it has been gaining pace, we’d expect it to accelerate further. We believe that the decade-long deleveraging cycle is now over. Consumers’ non-bank credit has for some time been rising relative to income (see Markets’ fears subside of 21 September by Elna Moolman).
  • We’d expect household consumption expenditure growth to average 1.8% this year and 2.4% next year, pending modest support from a further acceleration in household credit growth.

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