In the loop
Shireen Darmalingam
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.43/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.38/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TRY (+0.6%), PEN (+0.4%) and CZK (+0.4%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.4%), CLP (-0.4%) and PHP (-0.3%) were amongst the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
- US infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci has said that it is as yet unknown if the rapid spread of Omicron would “hasten the end of the health crisis”.
- England has lowered the age threshold for booster shots to 16 years.
- Hong Kong is dealing with Delta and Omicron outbreaks simultaneously.
- The BOJ has kept its policy unchanged, and held its negative interest rate, bond yield target and asset purchases steady.
- The bank adjusted its view of inflation risks for the first time since 2014.
- With energy prices rising, the BOJ upwardly revised its inflation forecasts for the next two fiscal years.
- The bank, however, does not see inflation near its 2% target over its forecast period ending in early 2024.
- Inflation in Japan remains limited to specific items such as fuel and cooking essentials as companies continue to absorb higher costs.
- The wave of higher global inflation has already seen the Fed and BOE take action to fight higher prices.
- The BOJ lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March and increased next year’s forecast.
- SA has the 19th highest caseload, at 3.560 million; 1,691 new cases were reported yesterday.
- Active cases are at 91,611; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 34,719 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 18,482.
- Covid-19 deaths rose by 87 yesterday, to 93,451; 3.375 million people (or 94.8%) have recovered from the virus.
- 21.815 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 18,171 tests were conducted yesterday; the SA positivity rate is 9.3%.
- 28.933 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 86,119 vaccines were administered yesterday.
- 16.08 million people, or 40.4% of the adult population, have been fully vaccinated.
- SA November mining production likely increased by 3.5% y/y, from 2.1% y/y in October.
- On a m/m basis, production is expected to have declined by 0.5%, from a 3.4% increase in October.
- Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 12.1% year-to-date.
- The gold price is down this morning, and down by 0.5% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $87.38/bbl; ($86.48/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1818/oz ($1819/oz*).
- SA CDS 214bps*, Brazil 228bps* and Turkey 560bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 1.78%*, German bund at -0.025%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.81%*, SA’s R186 at 7.76%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 09h00: UK ILO unemployment rate (November)
- 11h30: SA mining production (November)
- 12h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (January)
- 15h30: US Empire manufacturing (January)
- 17h00: US NAHB housing market index (January)
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