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In the loop 24 November 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R15.84/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R15.84/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.7%), PLN (+0.1%) and BRL (+0.1%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-10.3%), COP (-1.4%) and MXN (-1.4%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down while the Hang Seng is up.
  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 259.01 million, while the death toll has surpassed 5.18 million; recoveries are at 234.35 million.
  • The US CDC has raised its travel advisory for Denmark and Germany to the highest level in response to recent surges in infections across Europe. 
  • The Netherlands is reintroducing social distancing measures from today.
  • European Union officials are trying to agree on how to manage vaccine rollouts as projections for deaths continue to rise.
  • New Zealand is expected to ease border restrictions from January, with fully vaccinated tourists able to return from the end of April.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 0.75%.
  • The RBNZ noted that further removal of stimulus is expected given the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment
  • The bank further noted that it would need to tighten policy quicker than previously expected to contain inflation.
  • The bank expects CPI to breach 5% in the short term.
  • The bank’s projections show that interest rates are expected to rise to 2% by the end of next year.
  • The US FOMC meeting minutes of 2-3 November are due out later today.
  • The Fed announced QE tapering at that meeting, with purchases expected to end by June next year.
  • There have recently been calls from several policymakers for the Fed to taper asset purchases at a faster pace.
  • Locally, the BER’s Q4:21 business confidence index is due out today; we expect an improvement in sentiment following the July unrest which weighed on Q3:21 confidence.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 59.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 5.5% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $82.42/bbl; ($82.31/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1795/oz ($1784/oz*).
  • SA CDS 222bps*, lower than Brazil 248bps* and Turkey 487bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.66%*, German bund at -0.220%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.08%*, SA’s R186 at 8.09%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 12h00: SA BER business confidence (Q4:21)
  • 14h00: US MBA mortgage applications (19 November)
  • 15h30: US initial jobless claims (20 November), GDP (Q3:21)
  • 17h00: US personal income and spending (October)
  • 17h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (November), new home sales (October)
  • 21h00: US FOMC meeting minutes

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