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In the loop 20 January 2022

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R15.31/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.31/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+2.2%), ZAR (+1.3%) and TRY (+1.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the MYR (-0.3%%), MXN (-0.3%) and IDR (-0.2%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
  • The Turkish Central Bank may keep rates unchanged today; the bank in December said that it would monitor the impact of its loosening cycle in Q1:22.
  • Norges Bank is expected to remain on hold; Ukraine may however hike rates by 50 bps. 
  • The minutes of the 16 December ECB meeting are due out today.
  • Policymakers seemed more concerned at the December meeting about the Omicron threat to GDP than it fuelling higher prices.
  • The ECB will meet in February; it is expected to keep rates unchanged.
  • The final estimate for December Eurozone CPI is due today.
  • The first estimate saw CPI increase 5% y/y in December, the highest since the inception of the euro, from 4.9% y/y in November.
  • Today’s data will inform price pressures in this economy.
  • Markets will keep an eye on energy price pressures, services inflation, and food inflation. 
  • SA has the 19th highest caseload, at 3.568 million; 4,322 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 85,166; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 33,879 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 14,054.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 156 yesterday, to 93,707; 3.39 million people (or 95%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 21.895 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 40,654 tests were conducted yesterday; the SA positivity rate is 10,6%.
  • 29.164 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 74,305 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • 16.165 million people, or 40.6% of the adult population, have been fully vaccinated.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 13.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 0.6% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $88.27/bbl; ($88.44/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1839/oz ($1840/oz*).
  • SA CDS 208bps*, Brazil 222bps* and Turkey 543bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.86%*, German bund at -0.012%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.83%*, SA’s R186 at 7.78%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 12h00: Eurozone CPI (December)
  • 14h30: Eurozone ECB meeting minutes (December)
  • 15h30: US initial jobless claims (15 January)
  • 17h00: US existing home sales (December)

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