In the loop 12 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.15/$, after closing unchanged yesterday (R17.14/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+0.5%), BRL (+0.5%) and COP (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.4%), IDR (-0.2%) and TWD (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while Shanghai Composite is down.

The US government shutdown, now the longest in history, at 43 days, appears close to ending following significant progress in Congress.
The Senate passed a funding package by a 60–40 vote after eight Democrats broke ranks to join Republicans.
The bill now moves to the House, which is scheduled to reconvene for a vote expected later today.
It is largely expected that this will bring an end to the government shutdown.
This is assuming that the House approves the legislation and President Trump signs it, as he has indicated that he would.

ECB Executive board member Frank Elderson yesterday reaffirmed that the current level of interest rates in the Eurozone is appropriate.
He emphasised that the ECB should stick to a data-dependent approach, and he cautioned against committing to any pre-set path for monetary policy.
He noted that recent data confirms inflation as on track to converge toward the 2% target in the medium term, with risks to inflation now balanced between upward and downward pressures.
Elderson highlighted that monetary policy remains “in a good place”.
However, he acknowledged persistent uncertainty in the global environment.
His remarks are in line with several other policymakers signalling a steady stance ahead of December projections, with flexibility to adjust if inflation deviates materially from the target.

ECB Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen cautioned that fiscal problems in individual Eurozone countries can quickly spread and affect the bloc’s monetary policy.
He emphasised that the single currency brings not only opportunities but also shared responsibilities among member states.
Sleijpen noted that financial strains in one country can easily spill over into others due to the high degree of economic interconnection within the bloc.
Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence that policymakers in her home country, France, would take steps to reduce uncertainty and comply with the European Union’s fiscal rules.

Locally, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is scheduled to table the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) today.
The focal point in this MTBPS will be whether government’s debt-GDP ratio peaks this year, per National Treasury’s long-standing guidance.
We have for a long time seen this as a credible commitment, with a growing number of investors now sharing this view.
However, though some investors remain cautious amid persistent long-term risks, they should be encouraged by the likely near-term fiscal outperformance and possible reduction in domestic bond issuance.
Revenue seems likely to overshoot the Budget forecasts, while expenditure is likely to have remained on track.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.96/bbl; ($65.16/bbl*).
Gold is at $4104/oz ($4126/oz*).
SA CDS 151bps*, Brazil 138bps* and Turkey 245bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.11%*, German bund at 2.65%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.90%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.79%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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