In the loop 21 October 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R14.46/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R14.41/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TRY (+0.9%), ZAR (+0.7%) and INR (+0.6%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.3%), BRL (-0.2%) and CNY (-0.2%) were amongst the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 242.81 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.93 million; recoveries are at 220.10 million.
The US has 46.09 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 751,811.
India has 34.12 million cases and 452,844 deaths; Brazil has 21.68 million cases and 604,303 deaths.

In the EU, lockdown measures are back, with infections rising while vaccination rates remain low.
Latvia is the bloc’s first member state to once again shut down parts of its economy due to soaring infections threatening to overwhelm hospitals.
Bars and shops will be closed for the next month, a curfew has been imposed, and schools will resume distance learning.
Cases are also surging in Romania, Bulgaria and Romania.
Restrictions have been ordered in Russia as infections and deaths approach record levels.
Singapore will maintain current restrictions for about another month.

The Fed’s Beige Book notes the US economy as expanding at a “modest to moderate rate”.
Several districts noted that growth had slowed due to supply constraints and concerns over the Delta variant.
The report notes the near-term economic outlook as positive.
While employment increased, US labour growth was dampened by low supply of workers, despite wage increases designed to attract new workers and retain existing employees.
Most districts reported "significantly elevated prices”, some districts expect prices to increase further, while others expect inflation to moderate.
The report is unlikely to influence the timing of hiking rates.
Fed Governor Randal Quarles remarked that the current high inflation may test the Fed's patience as it leaves rates low; he has called for tapering to begin in November.

Eurozone consumer confidence for October likely slipped further, to -5.0 pts, from -4.0 pts in September.
The Turkish Central Bank today will likely cut rates by 50 bps, to 17.25%; the bank had cut rates by 100 bps in September.

SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.917 million; 591 new cases were reported yesterday.
Active cases are at 19,854; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 6,371 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 4,851.
Covid-19 deaths rose by 80 yesterday, to 88,754; 2.809 million people (or 96.3%) have recovered from the virus.
18.251 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 34,177 tests were conducted yesterday.
The positivity rate is 1.7%.
20.794 million vaccines have been administered to date; 201,666 vaccines were administered yesterday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $85.63/bbl; ($85.82/bbl*).
Gold is at $1784/oz ($1786/oz*).
SA CDS 207bps*, lower than Brazil 212bps* and Turkey 443bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 1.65%*, German bund at -0.126%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.78%*, SA’s R186 at 7.86%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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